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S&P Global Commodity Insights raises 10-year production outlook for Canadian oil sands

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Higher crude prices and continued optimization improvements have driven the first upward revision to the S&P Global Commodity Insights 10-year oil sands production outlook in more than half a decade. Higher oil prices have driven record returns for the Canadian oil sands.

Oil-Sands 221
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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.

Oil-Sands 220
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Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

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World oil production capacity to 2020 (crude oil and NGLs, excluding biofuels). Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 Source: Maugeri 2012.

Oil 261
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IEA: Global oil discoveries and new projects fell to historic lows in 2016 while US shale surged; “two-speed” market

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Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016 as companies continued to cut spending and conventional oil projects sanctioned were at the lowest level in more than 70 years, according to the International Energy Agency, which warned that both trends could continue this year. Oil discoveries declined to 2.4

Oil 150
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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However, both cases result in global CO 2 emissions well above the IEA 450 scenario—a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Coal will increase by 1.2%

Energy 210
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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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billion metric tons in 2015 and 40.4 The IEO2009 reference case does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Total world energy use rises from 472 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2006 to 552 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 678 quadrillion Btu in 2030. billion metric tons in 2006 to 33.1

2006 150
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Increase in US rig count will not cap oil prices

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The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices. by David Yager for Oilprice.com.