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Sandia study finds meeting RFS2 requirements unlikely without stronger enforcement mechanism; the importance of drop-in biofuels

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The Sandia researchers showed that the key to meeting the RFS2 targets is the fuel price differential between E85 fuel and conventional gasoline (low ethanol blends), so that E85 owners refuel with E85 whenever possible. The model has four sub-components: vehicle, fuel production, electricity grid; and energy supply.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles. Click to enlarge.

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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

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Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

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Even until 2030 many alternative powertrain technologies such as PHEV, BEV and FCV lack relative cost competitiveness—but are important cornerstones in vehicle manufacturers’ CO 2 emission compliance strategies. PHEVs fueled with advanced biofuels and low carbon, renewable electricity (for PC).

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Mixed Outlook for Mainstream Consumer Adoption of PHEVs

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Bubble chart of plausible mainstream PHEV buyers’ battery requirements (light and dark gray circles) and experts’s requirements overlaid on a Ragone plot of NiMH and Li-ion batteries. The Most Plausible Early Market consumers value fuel economy. Source: Ken Kurani. Click to enlarge. Which cars should be built when?

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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption of fossil fuels jumped to over $400 billion. billion in 2035. Click to enlarge.

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