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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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As the world population increases by the estimated 30% from 2010 to 2040, ExxonMobil sees global GDP rising by about 140%, but energy demand by only about 35% due to greater efficiency. The Outlook for Energy provides ExxonMobil’s long-term view of global energy demand and supply. Click to enlarge.

Energy 252
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ExxonMobil Outlook: 35% growth in energy demand by 2040; hybrids to account for ~50% of new vehicle sales

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By 2040, hybrids are expected to account for about 35% of the global light-duty vehicle fleet, up from less than 1% in 2010. Hybrids are expected to account for about half of global new-car sales by 2040. Without the projected gains in efficiency, global energy demand could have risen by more than 100%. Source: ExxonMobil.

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ExxonMobil Outlook projects hybrids and advanced vehicles to account for nearly 50% of cars globally by 2040; fuel demand for for personal vehicles to peak and decline, while commercial transportation demand rises 70%

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Exxon Mobil Corporation’s new The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 , released last week, projects that global energy demand in 2040 will be about 30% higher than it was in 2010 as population grows to 9 billion and global GDP doubles. Growth is led by developing regions such as China, India, Africa and other emerging economies.

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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030.

2006 150
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EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain. Strong efficiency gains (especially in personal transportation) and conservation reduce OECD demand for liquid fuels.

Asia 341
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Devil in the Details: World Leaders Scramble To Salvage and Shape Copenhagens UNFCCC Climate Summit

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ÂşF) above pre-industrial levels to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change, and that global GHG emissions would have to peak around 2020 and then sharply decline by 50% to 85% by the year 2050. AR4 also affirmed that warming would have to be held to no more than 2 ÂşC to 2.4 ÂşF) increase. Earlier post.)

Climate 236