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BNEF forecasts EVs to hit 54% of new car sales by 2040; decreasing importance of PHEVs

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Electric vehicles will make up the majority of new car sales worldwide by 2040, and account for 33% of all the light-duty vehicles on the road, according to a new forecast published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). This represents an aggressive jump compared to BNEF’s previous forecast of 35% EV new car market share by 2040.

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BNEF forecasts EVs to be 35% of global new car sales by 2040; cost of ownership below conventional-fuel vehicles by 2025

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A new study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) forecasts that sales of electric vehicles will hit 41 million by 2040, representing 35% of new light duty vehicle sales worldwide. BNEF will discuss its EV forecast in detail at its upcoming annual BNEF Summit in New York in April.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

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Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

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Overall, worldwide sales forecasts—and hence the related production forecasts for EVs and PHEVs—are more conservative than in the preceding survey period. Since the previous survey, forecasts for vehicle production in Germany, France and South Korea have experienced positive development but remain at comparably low levels.

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Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

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In 2011, the largest dollar volume for Li-ion automotive applications could come from the mini EV and EREV segment. Reflecting the current difficulties in forecasting, Anderman, who publishes an annual market forecast for the sector, said he decided not to produce the 2009 report. Data: Dr. Menahem Anderman. Click to enlarge.

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UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

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In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. Electric Cars in the United States: A New Model with Forecasts to 2030” was written by Thomas Becker, a Ph.D.

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Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

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However, consumer demand for PEVs is quite uncertain and, barring another global spike in oil prices, may be limited to a minor percentage of new vehicle purchasers (e.g., Lithium-ion batteries may never have adequate energy density to independently power a household’s primary multi-purpose vehicle.

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