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Today’s Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

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As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. With this kind of impending discrepancy between supply and demand, the industry needs to start looking for new sources of oil, and quickly. by Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com.

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BP Statistical Review finds global oil share down for 12th year in a row, coal share up to highest level since 1969; renewables at 2%

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Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, but its 33.1% Coal’s market share of 30.3% seen in 2010, according to the newly released BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2012. Emerging economies accounted for all of the net growth, with OECD demand falling for the third time in the last four years, led by a sharp decline in Japan.

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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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World energy growth over the next twenty years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030. Click to enlarge.

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IHS Markit: global commercial vehicle production to drop 22% in 2020 in wake of COVID-19

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Key regional insights on a few major markets follows: For the North American market, IHS Markit forecasts a production decline of more than 30% in Class 4-8, or about 198,000 units from previous forecasts, as the economic slump combines with rapidly ebbing replacement pressure to undermine new orders.

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Opinion: Expect A Wave Of Consolidation In The Oil Industry

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Most, if not all, smaller market capitalization companies, public or private, are still free cash flow negative (operating cash flow less capital expenditure) and only a few of the larger ones are now, or will be, based on guidance. Expect the dollar to weaken considerably, breaching the 2015 lows thus supporting oil prices now and into 2016.

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Opinion: Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

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Energy is the foundation of Russia, its economy, its government, and its political system. Even a casual glance at the IMF’s World Economic Outlook statistics for Russia shows the tight correlation since 1992 between GDP growth on the one hand and oil and gas output, exports, and prices on the other (economic series available here ).

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RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

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A consensus is developing that global oil production is less likely to come to a sharp peak and more likely to hit a plateau that might continue for some decades and then slowly decline. In response to these high prices, demand will moderate as petroleum consumers look for transportation options that are more energy efficient.

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