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ExxonMobil Outlook: 35% growth in energy demand by 2040; hybrids to account for ~50% of new vehicle sales

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In 2010 China had only about five light-duty vehicles per 100 people, while India had less than two per 100 people; this compares to about 75 vehicles for every 100 people in the United States. However, by 2040, China and India are expected to increase their levels by more than 500%. Click to enlarge. Click to enlarge. Natural gas.

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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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World energy growth over the next twenty years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030. Coal will increase by 1.2% Click to enlarge.

Energy 210
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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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ExxonMobil focused particularly on three groups of countries in projecting future energy trends: China and India, which are expected to account for half the growth in global energy demand because these two developing economies will lead the world in terms of population size and the pace of growth in standards of living.

Energy 252
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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030. Transportation.

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ExxonMobil Outlook projects hybrids and advanced vehicles to account for nearly 50% of cars globally by 2040; fuel demand for for personal vehicles to peak and decline, while commercial transportation demand rises 70%

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Growth is led by developing regions such as China, India, Africa and other emerging economies. Demand for oil and other liquid fuels will rise by nearly 30%, and most of that increase will be linked to transportation. The fastest-growing of these will be wind, which will increase by about 8% per year from 2010 to 2040.

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