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IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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barely rises in OECD countries, although there is a pronounced shift away from oil, coal (and, in some countries, nuclear) towards natural gas and renewables. Links between regional gas markets will strengthen as liquefied natural gas trade becomes more flexible and contract terms evolve. Energy demand. — WEO-2012.

Global 225
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EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Other liquids refer to natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids [BTL]), gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), kerogen (i.e., oil shale), and refinery gain. Rising world oil prices attract investment in areas previously considered uneconomic.

Asia 341
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IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

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China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The Middle East becomes the world’s second-largest gas consumer by 2020 and third-largest oil consumer by 2030, redefining its role in global energy markets. Mobility and oil. Source: IEA.

Oil 275
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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Alternative technologies, such as hybrid and electric vehicles that use oil more efficiently or not at all, continue to advance but they take time to penetrate markets. Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. billion in 2035. Click to enlarge.

Oil 247