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An OPEC Deal Extension Isn’t As Simple As It Sounds

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It’s been six months now that oil prices have been reacting to OPEC, first to the possibility of an agreement, and then to the production cut deal itself, forged by OPEC to rebalance the market. And according to Iraq, the agreed-upon cuts have been all about exports all along. But Iraq is uniquely positioned.

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The 5 Countries That Could Push Oil Prices Up

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The ‘Fragile Five’ petrostates—Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela—continue to see supply disruption potential, with northern Iraq crude exports at risk due to an escalation of tensions between the (Kurdistan Regional Government), Baghdad and Turkey, while the United States has decertified the 2015 Iran nuclear deal,” U.S.

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Opinion: Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

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The Saudi decision to let the market set prices and to pursue market share, has led to steep declines in crude and petroleum product prices. in 2015 and 2016 respectively). in 2015 and 2016 respectively). Russia already has extensive and close ties with Iran and Venezuela, and is now laying the basis for such ties with Iraq.

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IEA: record oil output from US, Brazil, Canada and Norway to keep global markets well supplied

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Oil production growth from the United States, Brazil, Canada and Norway can keep the world well supplied, more than meeting global oil demand growth through 2020, but more investment will be needed to boost output after that, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest annual report on oil markets. mb/d to reach 107 mb/d by 2023.

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Day Of Reckoning For US Shale Will Have To Wait

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In fact, Jeffries sees the spring of 2016 as a more critical deadline for struggling drillers hoping to keep their credit lines open. “We Kicking the can means that production may not fall as fast as expected, which will mean oil prices may not begin to stage a rally as quickly as some had hoped.

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Opinion: The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits

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But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase. US oil production has steadily lost ground over the past two quarters, with production falling more than a half million barrels per day since hitting a peak at nearly 9.7

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Opinion: Saudis Could Face An Open Revolt At Next OPEC Meeting

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In both the United States and Russia, each of which produces roughly as much as Saudi Arabia, output increased in 2015 rather than decreasing, and will continue to increase in 2016 in the U.S. percent in 2016. As we have pointed out, RBC Capital’s fragile five , Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Iraq and Venezuela, the pain is intense.