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Sandia study finds meeting RFS2 requirements unlikely without stronger enforcement mechanism; the importance of drop-in biofuels

Green Car Congress

The Sandia researchers showed that the key to meeting the RFS2 targets is the fuel price differential between E85 fuel and conventional gasoline (low ethanol blends), so that E85 owners refuel with E85 whenever possible. Relying on consumers to purchase ED85 instead of gasohol is too uncertain of an approach to meeting the mandate.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. Hybrids went from about 8% of sales in 2009 to over 11% in 2010.

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National Research Council report finds it unlikely the US will meet cellulosic biofuel mandates absent major innovation or a change in policies

Green Car Congress

In the absence of major technological innovations or policy changes, the United States is unlikely to meet cellulosic biofuel mandates under the current Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) by 2022, according to a new report from the National Research Council.

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Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. 2010, to above 140 $/bbl in constant 2010 dollars).

Oil 207
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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Click to enlarge.

Oil 247
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Study Finds Coordinated Off-peak Charging Can Support Large Scale Plug-in Use Without Additional Generation Capacity; TCO and GHG Abatement Costs for BEVs Projected to Remain High

Green Car Congress

purchase cost of gasoline engines is some €1500 lower than of diesel engines. They assumed an oil price of US$80/bbl, close to the short-term. They used an EV drivetrain with a single 74 kW central motor (CM) that consumes 103±20 Wh/km from 2010 and one with two 29kW wheel motors (WM) that consumes 89±19 Wh/km from 2015.

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