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US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

NRC projections of number of PHEVs in the US light-duty fleet. Costs of light-duty plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are high—largely due to their lithium-ion batteries—and unlikely to drastically decrease in the near future, according to a new report from the National Research Council (NRC). Click to enlarge.

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Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

Green Car Congress

In 2011, the largest dollar volume for Li-ion automotive applications could come from the mini EV and EREV segment. As one example of factors contributing to that decision, a survey of projected oil prices returned values between $30 and $250 a barrel, he said.). Representative battery pack size is below each segment.

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Mixed Outlook for Mainstream Consumer Adoption of PHEVs

Green Car Congress

Bubble chart of plausible mainstream PHEV buyers’ battery requirements (light and dark gray circles) and experts’s requirements overlaid on a Ragone plot of NiMH and Li-ion batteries. A trajectory through time of PHEV designs allows good things to happen. Source: Ken Kurani. Click to enlarge. Ken Kurani.

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Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

Green Car Congress

million kWh of Li-ion batteries and revenue of $4.1 Two key drivers of EV adoption include climate concerns and oil prices. In contrast, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will be the largest category in Japan, which is expected to be the region’s second-largest market for all PEVs. Click to enlarge.

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Study Finds Coordinated Off-peak Charging Can Support Large Scale Plug-in Use Without Additional Generation Capacity; TCO and GHG Abatement Costs for BEVs Projected to Remain High

Green Car Congress

Compare GHG emissions and costs of PHEV and BPEV with those of regular cars. that gasoline engine-generators in SHEVs and PHEVs have the same efficiency relative to diesel. There are three main aspects to this analysis: Determine the effect of EV charging patterns on household and total electricity demand. —van Vliet et al.

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