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Belfer Center Study Concludes Reducing Car and Truck GHG Emissions Will Require Substantially Higher Fuel Prices; Income Tax Credits for Advanced Alt Fuel Vehicles Are Essentially Ineffective at Reducing Sector Emissions

Green Car Congress

The study— Analysis of Policies to Reduce Oil Consumption and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions from the US Transportation Sector —finds that reducing CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector 14% below 2005 levels by 2020 may require fuel prices above $8/gallon by 2020. —Morrow et al. Adoption of all of the preceding policies.

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Global biofuels production up 17% in 2010 to hit all-time high of 105 billion liters

Green Car Congress

World ethanol and biodiesel production, 1975-2010. Global production of biofuels increased 17% in 2010 to reach an all-time high of 105 billion liters (28 billion gallons US), up from 90 billion liters (24 billion gallons US) in 2009. Source: Worldwatch Institute. Click to enlarge. —Sam Shrank. Sugarcane ethanol supplies 41.5%

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Fuel provisions in the Tax Relief bill

Green Car Congress

4853 , the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 (“Middle Class Tax Relief Act of 2010”). The bill extends the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC) through 2011 at the current rate of $0.45/gallon US President Barack Obama on Friday signed H.R.

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CMU study finds that HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more emissions and oil displacement benefits per dollar spent than large pack PHEVs and BEVs; policy implications

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Value of life-cycle emissions externality damages and oil premium costs from vehicles in 2010 $. A paper presenting the results of the group’s latest year-long study on the lifecycle air emissions and oil displacement benefits of plug-in vehicles was published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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ICCT suggests minor changes to Fed tax policy to cut higher investment risk of 2nd-gen biofuels and advance the industry

Green Car Congress

In addition, the industry faces barriers from the impending “blend wall” of 10% ethanol in gasoline and uncertainty regarding policies and oil prices. The study identified four specific changes to the US tax code that could help accelerate the commercialization of second-generation biofuels.

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Congressional Budget Office estimates US federal policies promoting EVs and other fuel-efficient vehicles will cost $7.5B through 2019; little or no impact on gasoline use and GHG in the short term

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Tax credits and gasoline prices necessary for various electric vehicles to be cost-competitive with conventional vehicles at 2011 vehicle prices. For example, an average plug-in hybrid vehicle with a battery capacity of 16 kWh would be eligible for the maximum tax credit of $7,500. Source: CBO. Click to enlarge.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. Hybrids went from about 8% of sales in 2009 to over 11% in 2010.