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The Next Oil Price Spike May Cripple The Industry

Green Car Congress

Two diametrically opposed views dominate the current debate about where the oil price is heading. The first is that at present EVs do not yet outperform ICEVs comprehensively. The second is that under the best of circumstances it will take the EV industry close to another decade to close this cost of ownership gap.

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BNEF forecasts EVs to be 35% of global new car sales by 2040; cost of ownership below conventional-fuel vehicles by 2025

Green Car Congress

According to Salim Morsy, senior analyst and author of the study, the central forecast is based on the crude oil price recovering to $50/barrel, and then trending back up to $70 or higher by 2040. Should fall to $20/barrel and remain there, it would delay mass adoption of EVs only to the early 2030s, according to the BNEF analysis.

Cost Of 150
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Biosyncrude Gasification Process Could Produce Motor Fuel at Cost of Around $3/gallon

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A crude oil price of US$100/bbl results in an approximate cost of €0.56/L The pyrolysis oil is mixed with pyrolysis coke from the process to create a biocrude slurry for transport and subsequent gasification to syngas and subsequent catalytic conversion to chemicals and/or fuels. per liter (US$2.72-5.03/gallon

Cost Of 150
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Study finds that dry-feed gasification for coal-to-liquids is more efficient, lower-emitting and cheaper than slurry-feed; CCS cost-effective for reduction of CO2

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Although co-production plants are much more costly than liquids-only configurations in terms of capital cost, Hari Mantripragadaa1 and Edward Rubin found, because of the high electricity revenues the cost of liquid product is lower than that of the liquids-only case, at market prices of electricity. Click to enlarge.

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Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

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The US Department of Energy released its inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report (DOE-QTR)—an assessment of the Department’s energy technology research and development portfolios. Furthermore, DOE will only support technologies that emit less carbon than incumbents—in keeping with our national energy goals.

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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. Tcf in the High Oil and Gas Resource case.

2020 150
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Global Bioenergies reports first production of green isobutene at demo plant

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Global Bioenergies is now entering the final phase of demonstrating its technology for converting renewable carbon into hydrocarbons. In the fuel sector, it is presently used to manufacture isooctane, ETBE and MTBE which are valuable compounds used in gasoline mixes. Earlier post.).

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