2010, Electric Vehicles, Hybrid and Oil Prices

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. Click to enlarge. He also believes that sub-1.6L gallon gasoline.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

Green Car Congress

APRIL 22, 2013

Under its most conservative of scenarios, more than 5 million light-duty electric-drive vehicles will be on the road in the US by 2035, according to a new forecast by IEE , an institue of the Edison Foundation. IEE developed three general scenarios for electric transportation: low, medium, and high.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Vehicles 2012 Light

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

Costs of light-duty plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are high—largely due to their lithium-ion batteries—and unlikely to drastically decrease in the near future, according to a new report from the National Research Council (NRC). Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles”.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid

BNEF forecasts EVs to hit 54% of new car sales by 2040; decreasing importance of PHEVs

Green Car Congress

JULY 6, 2017

Electric vehicles will make up the majority of new car sales worldwide by 2040, and account for 33% of all the light-duty vehicles on the road, according to a new forecast published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). Since 2010, lithium-ion battery prices have fallen 73% per kWh.

PHEV

PHEV Sale Lithium Ion Cars

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

Bringing optimized ICEs as well as alternative fuels and powertrain technologies to market will account for €380-390 billion (US$435-446) of cumulated incremental powertrain costs from 2010 until 2030. PHEVs fueled with advanced biofuels and low carbon, renewable electricity (for PC).

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

Modelled vehicle sales per year in Scenario 3. According to a recently published report commissioned by the Victoria (Australia) Department of Transport from AECOM, electric vehicle (EV) technology offers the state of Victoria potentially significant economic benefits by the late 2020s. Source: AECOM. Click to enlarge.

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 16, 2010

According to a new report from Pike Research, the various national-level initiatives and programs to promote the awareness of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Asia-Pacific region will help make the region the largest market worldwide for electrified vehicles, led by strong demand in China, Japan, and Korea. billion in 2015.

Asia

Asia 2015 China Sale

Perspective: Toyota Prius Recall Is Only a Bump in the Road in the Move Toward Electrification

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 9, 2010

The recall of Toyota’s Prius is causing some observers to question whether the prospects for the entire hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and electric vehicle (EV) markets are fundamentally hurt. This price reduction will create the economic incentive to appeal to a broader consumer base. Earlier post.].

Prius

Prius Toyota PHEV Hybrid

Economic Impact Study Finds Grid-Enabled Vehicle Policies in Electrification Coalition Roadmap Would Result in Substantial Economic Benefit for US

Green Car Congress

APRIL 9, 2010

This comparative simulation was carried out over the period 2010 to 2030. Employment in the industries that supply key electric and electronic components to electric vehicles would increase by 112,000 jobs. Cumulatively, during the 2010-2030 period, households would experience an increase of $4.6 Oil Imports.

Grid

Grid Vehicles 2008 Oil

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 13, 2011

The MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) has released a report on the proceedings—and papers that informed those proceedings—of the 8 April 2010 symposium on The Electrification of the Transportation System: Issues and Opportunities. Vehicle technologies. The analogous progression for CO 2 emissions is less clear.

Transportation

Transportation MIT Oil Prices Oil

Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

Green Car Congress

MARCH 19, 2012

Summary of battery pack cost projections, 2010-2030. Governments and vehicle manufacturers will need to introduce long-term incentives and price cuts to create a sustainable European market for ultra-low emission vans (ULEV), according to a newly published report by Element Energy, commissioned by the UK Department for Transport.

Emissions

Emissions Manufacturer Market Price

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 8, 2011

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has released One Million Electric Vehicles by 2015 , a short status report on advances in deployment and progress to date in meeting President Obama’s goal of putting one million plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) on the road by 2015. Earlier post.).

2015

2015 Plug-in Tax Credit Plug

Michigan Energy and Advanced Automotive Research Lined Up for $99.5M in Funding from FY2010 Defense Appropriations Bill

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 21, 2009

The Defense Appropriations Bill for fiscal year 2010, passed earlier this month by the US Senate Appropriations Committee and now under consideration by the full Senate, contains US$14.4 billion—is allocated for vehicle and weapons procurement, according to Sen. million), including hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and hydraulic hybrids.

Michigan

Michigan Lithium Ion Energy Hybrid

Toyota Plug In

Plug In Partners

JUNE 11, 2008

Here's the story from the LA Times: Toyota promises plug-in hybrid vehicle in U.S., Japan and Europe by 2010 By Yuri Kageyama, The Associated Press June 11, 2008 TOKYO -- Toyota is introducing a plug-in hybrid with next-generation lithium-ion batteries in the U.S., Event Summary Oil prices are at record highs.

Plug-in

Plug-in Toyota Plug Nickel Metal Hydride

Volkswagen Group invested €11.5B (US$12.9B) in R&D in 2014; ongoing focus on electromobility and digitalization of vehicles

Green Car Congress

MARCH 2, 2015

The Group already offers the widest range of electromobility solutions in the automotive industry as well, with nine battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Winterkorn also emphasized that Volkswagen remains committed to its environmental goals, and noted that the present low level of oil prices would not change that.

2014

2014 Vehicles Automobile Climate

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 18, 2010

An AECOM-led study of plug-in electric vehicle economics for the New South Wales, Australia government concluded that electric vehicles are economically and financially viable in the NSW market today. Economic Viability of Electric Vehicles”. Click to enlarge. minutes per 40 km).

Australia

Australia Market Plug-in Plug

Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

Green Car Congress

APRIL 12, 2012

They assessed purchaser technology choice for new vehicles on a cost-effectiveness basis using net present value (NPV) as a decision criterion, with parameters chosen to take account of factors such as consumer myopia with regard to fuel cost savings. R&D plus electric vehicle subsidy.

Transportation

Transportation Europe Climate Change Emissions

Interview with Chris Paine in the Whole Life Times

Revenge of the Electric Car

JANUARY 21, 2009

What happens to an electric car deferred? Ask Chris Paine, director of the documentary film Who Killed the Electric Car? 2006), and you’ll learn that those once-dead electric vehicles (EVs) are now exacting a shocking revenge. What happens to an electric car deferred? Is this discouraging?

EV1

EV1 Los Angeles Hydrogen GM

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Click to enlarge.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Study Finds Coordinated Off-peak Charging Can Support Large Scale Plug-in Use Without Additional Generation Capacity; TCO and GHG Abatement Costs for BEVs Projected to Remain High

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 18, 2010

The study, in press in the Journal of Power Sources , examines the efficiency and costs of current and future EVs, as well as their impact on electricity demand and infrastructure for generation and distribution, and thereby on GHG emissions. They assumed an oil price of US$80/bbl, close to the short-term. Volkswagen Golf, Ford.

Plug-in

Plug-in Charging PHEV Gasoline-Electric

Nissan’s Big Gamble

Revenge of the Electric Car

JULY 14, 2009

They own the hybrid market and are doing quite well, thank you, so why adopt a whole new technology that’s untried on a large scale? Those who make the decisions to forgo battery EVs in favor of plug- in hybrids only ignore a sizable market. The vehicles will be made in the United States, Japan and Europe.

Nissan

Nissan Japan United States Gasoline-Electric

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

The World's First Clean Motocross Race On Electric. High-Speed Rail Unlocks Intermodal Potential Texas Excess Ford Expands Hybrid Success to Electric Vehicles ► March (17) Carbon Capture and Storage: To Be or Not To Be? The Appraisal 2010 Prius Delivers Record Mileage and Accelerates.

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

EV Driven

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

BNEF forecasts EVs to hit 54% of new car sales by 2040; decreasing importance of PHEVs

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

Perspective: Toyota Prius Recall Is Only a Bump in the Road in the Move Toward Electrification

Economic Impact Study Finds Grid-Enabled Vehicle Policies in Electrification Coalition Roadmap Would Result in Substantial Economic Benefit for US

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Michigan Energy and Advanced Automotive Research Lined Up for $99.5M in Funding from FY2010 Defense Appropriations Bill

Toyota Plug In

Volkswagen Group invested €11.5B (US$12.9B) in R&D in 2014; ongoing focus on electromobility and digitalization of vehicles

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

Interview with Chris Paine in the Whole Life Times

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Study Finds Coordinated Off-peak Charging Can Support Large Scale Plug-in Use Without Additional Generation Capacity; TCO and GHG Abatement Costs for BEVs Projected to Remain High

Nissan’s Big Gamble

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

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