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BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

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The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

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The New Oil Cartel Threatening OPEC

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According to Bloomberg’s Carl Pope , Europe and Japan, previously reluctant to take part in any anti-OPEC projects, may now join in. The reason they are likely to join in is that unlike in previous oil price cycles, now there are alternatives to fossil fuels. India, China, and Europe are all very big on EV adoption.

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The New Oil Cartel Threatening OPEC

Green Car Congress

According to Bloomberg’s Carl Pope , Europe and Japan, previously reluctant to take part in any anti-OPEC projects, may now join in. The reason they are likely to join in is that unlike in previous oil price cycles, now there are alternatives to fossil fuels. India, China, and Europe are all very big on EV adoption.

Oil 150
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Navigant forecasts global annual natural gas vehicle sales to reach 3.9M in 2025, up 62.5% from 2015

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This area will likely remain focused on the fleet markets (such as municipal vehicles), with medium- and heavy-duty gas vehicles—particularly for local applications, including refuse trucks, delivery vehicles, and transit buses that operate out of centralized depots—being the dominant applications.

2015 150
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Navigant forecasts global medium- and heavy-duty alt powertrain sales to exceed 820K units in 2026

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Whereas fuel cost used to be a major driver for fleet managers, the lowering of oil prices and the availability of low-cost natural gas has reduced this concern, Navigant notes.

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Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024

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The same year, Navigant expects 82% of vehicles in Western Europe to have a stop-start feature, along with nearly 69% of vehicles sold in Asia Pacific. The other driver for SSV technology is consumer demand—present in Europe and some Asia Pacific countries for some time thanks to high fuel prices. Forecasts SSVs'

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Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

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They estimated the number of new vehicles required and the adoption of new technologies and fuels based on their availability and cost effectiveness under projected scenario variables such as fuel price. They then estimated emissions based on fleet composition. This step was iterated with an estimation of demand changes.