2011, Oil Prices and Supplies

Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can’t Agree

Green Car Congress

APRIL 15, 2017

This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks. shale production, new oil discoveries, and new project start-ups also differ a lot. shale output.

Oil

Oil Supplies Oil Prices 2017

$10-Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 30, 2015

The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. On the one hand, OPEC does not see oil prices returning to triple-digit territory within the next 25 years, a strikingly bearish conclusion.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Climate Change

Opinion: Consumers winning with low oil prices, for now

Green Car Congress

MARCH 13, 2015

Columbia and Associate Director of the Maguire Energy Institute at the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University in Dallas says it has: “No question we’re seeing the effects of lower oil prices throughout the economy.”. decline curves eventually catch up with fewer rigs, oil supplies should start to fall.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Dallas

Forecast: global spending in 2011 on advanced oil and gas exploration technologies to total $10.17 billion

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 25, 2011

UK-based market analyst visiongain projects that global spending in 2011 on advanced oil & gas exploration technologies will total $10.17 visiongain’s Advanced Oil & Gas Exploration Technologies Market 2011-2021 report analyses the development of this market over the next ten years.

2011

2011 Oil Global Gas

EIA: Changes in refining economics in 2011 contributed to real contrasts in US refinery utilization

Green Car Congress

MARCH 20, 2012

The divergence of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices in 2011 affected refinery utilization in the United States, particularly in the East Coast (PADD 1) and Midwest (PADD 2) regions, according to a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Source: EIA. Click to enlarge. PADDs 4 and 5.

2011

2011 Oil Texas Oil Prices

Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

Green Car Congress

JULY 20, 2012

At 3%, the 2011 increase in global CO 2 emissions is above the past decade’s average annual increase of 2.7%. savings stimulated by high oil prices led to a decrease of 3% in CO 2 emissions in the European Union and of 2% in both the United States and Japan. combined, where emissions increased by 9% and 6% respectively in 2011.

2011

2011 Emissions CO2 Global

IHS Markit: US poised to be world’s largest LNG exporter in 2022 as China becomes top LNG importer

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 6, 2022

The United States was the largest source of LNG supply growth in 2021, adding 25 million metric tons (MMt) amid continued buildup of liquefaction capacity as well as the ramping up of output from plants turned down the previous year. Total loaded LNG supply in 2021 reached 396.3 Brazilian imports hit all-time high amidst drought.

Qatar

Qatar China United States Brazil

BP Statistical Review finds global oil share down for 12th year in a row, coal share up to highest level since 1969; renewables at 2%

Green Car Congress

JUNE 13, 2012

in 2011, close to the historical average. Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, but its 33.1% in 2011, broadly in line with the historical average but well below the 5.1% The report also highlighted supply disruptions as one of the major energy events of the year. World primary energy consumption grew by 2.5% Source: BP.

Coal

Coal Oil Renewable Saudi Arabia

Nikkei: popularity of fuel-efficient vehicles lowering demand for gasoline in Japan

Green Car Congress

JULY 7, 2012

The Nikkei reports that the nationwide average price in Japan for regular gasoline was ¥139.8 Prices at the pump are falling in Japan not only due to lower crude oil prices, but also because the widespread popularity of fuel-efficient vehicles has lowered demand for gasoline.A per liter ($6.65

Japan

Japan Gasoline Fuel Gasoline-Electric

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 20, 2011

Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels, according to IEO2011. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. Click to enlarge.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil 2008 Oil Prices

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

Green Car Congress

JULY 25, 2013

However, fossil fuels continue to supply nearly 80% of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane increase. per year over the projection period, but remain a relatively minor share of total liquids supply through 2040.

2010

2010 Transportation Fuel Energy

Purdue study projects that under likely adoption rates, use of biojet fuel alone will not meet aviation emissions reduction targets for 2050; the need to go above 50% blends

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 16, 2011

Uncertainty range of the aviation GHG emissions under the High Oil price scenario (the most optimistic for biojet adoption), given in a box plot depicting the minimum, quartile, and maximum values. The model uses three price scenarios: low oil, reference and high oil. Credit: ACS, Agusdinata et al.

Emissions

Emissions Oil Prices 2005 Fuel

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

Shale gas offsets declines in other US supply to meet. The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. Source: EIA.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Among its many findings, the Reference case suggests that US primary energy consumption will grow by 7% from 2011 to 2040 to 108 quadrillion Btu. However, energy use per capita declines by 15% from 2011 through 2040 as a result of improving energy efficiency (e.g., quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 14.0 than in AEO2012.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

EIA: US refineries running at record levels; gasoline demand; exports up

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 7, 2015

Lower crude oil prices and strong demand for petroleum products, primarily gasoline, both in the United States and globally, have led to favorable margins that encourage refinery investment and high refinery runs. Total US motor gasoline product supplied is up 2.9% through the first five months of the year compared with 2014.

Gasoline

Gasoline 2014 Louisiana Oil

Study: Kerry-Lieberman Bill Would Cut US Oil Imports By Up to 40% Below Current Levels

Green Car Congress

MAY 21, 2010

A new study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics concluded that the Kerry-Lieberman “American Power Act”—the energy and climate change legislation recently introduced in the Senate ( earlier post )—would reduced US oil imports by 33-40% below current levels and by 9-19% below projected business-as-usual levels by 2030.

Oil

Oil Climate Change Oil Prices 2005

EIA Estimates 2.1% Growth in Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in US in 2010; Still Below 1999-2008 Levels

Green Car Congress

APRIL 7, 2010

in 2011 as economic growth fuels higher energy consumption. However, even with increases in 2010 and 2011, projected CO 2 emissions in 2011 are lower than annual emissions from 1999 through 2008. EIA projects that world oil consumption will grow by 1.5 million bbl/d in 2011, similar to the forecast of last month.

2008

2008 2010 Emissions Fuel

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 10, 2009

Accenture has identified 12 technologies that it concludes have the potential to disrupt the current views of transport fuels supply, demand and GHG emissions over the next 10 years. Will be competitive at an oil price of $45 to $90 at their commercial date. Source: Accenture. Click to enlarge.

Transportation

Transportation Supplies Emissions Fuel

Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

Green Car Congress

JUNE 27, 2012

Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 Such an increase in capacity could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices, he suggests.

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Price Production

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

scenarios, and the sensitivity of the model to particular factors, the analysis reveals areas where intervention may be warranted: The capital costs associated with vehicle purchase, in relation to the costs for conventional vehicles; Supply constraints in the Australian market; and. supply constraints into the Australia market.

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

KPMG survey finds majority of energy execs see oil over $121/barrel this year; shale expected to have transformative impact, investment in alternatives increasing

Green Car Congress

MAY 12, 2011

The executives also foresee shale oil and gas having a transformative effect on helping to meet the world’s energy needs, according to the results of the 9 th Annual Energy Survey conducted by the KPMG Global Energy Institute. Alternative energy sources. 69% anticipate operating costs will go up over the next 12 months as well.

Oil

Oil Energy Wind 2011

Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020, falling to below 2010 levels by 2035

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 7, 2011

Global demand for oil may well peak before 2020, falling back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035, according to a multi-client research study conducted by Ricardo Strategic Consulting launched in June 2011 in association with Kevin J. The world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand. Lindemer LLC.

Oil

Oil 2010 2020 Global

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2012

However, the US military can play an important role in promoting stability in major oil producing regions and by helping protect the flow of energy through major transit corridors and on the high seas, the reports suggest. In the lead report, Bartis notes that global oil supplies are finite and thus, at some point, oil production must peak.

Price

Price Turkey Oil-Sands Fuel

Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

Green Car Congress

MARCH 19, 2012

Total costs of ownership were calculated for the full range of powertrains and van sizes in 2011, 2020 and 2030, taking account of depreciation and financing costs, fuel costs, servicing and insurance. A 45 kWh battery pack will decrease in cost from £30,000 (US$47,000) in 2011 to £16,000 (US$25,000) in 2020, a reduction of 47%.

Emissions

Emissions Manufacturer Market Price

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 12, 2012

by subsidies that amounted to $523 billion in 2011, up almost 30% on 2010 and six times more than subsidies to renewables. The cost of fossil-fuel subsidies has been driven up by higher oil prices; they remain most prevalent in the Middle East and North Africa, where momentum towards their reform appears to have been lost.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 27, 2011

Technically feasible levels of energy efficiency and decarbonized energy supply alone will not be sufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, according to a detailed modeling of the California economy performed by a team from Energy and Environmental Economics, the Monterey. Williams et al. Click to enlarge.

Climate

Climate California Fuel Gas-Electric

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 8, 2011

Estimated US supply of PEVs from 2011-2015. and model 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015. The cumulative impacts of the various policy initiatives, the experience of the early purchasers of electric-drive vehicles and future oil prices will all play a role in determining future consumer demand. Fisker Karma EREV.

2015

2015 Plug-in Tax Credit Plug

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

Green Car Congress

MARCH 2, 2013

The SEIS notes that while increasing domestic production of crude oil and decreasing demand for liquid transportation fuels will likely reduce the demand for total US crude oil imports, it is unlikely to reduce demand for heavy sour crude at Gulf Coast refineries. 2012 Keystone XL plan vs. 2008 plan. Surface waterbodies crossed.

Climate Change

Climate Change Oil-Sands Nebraska Climate

Benchmark: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine risks raising costs for Europe’s auto industry

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 26, 2022

Prices for nickel, a key battery material, rose to their highest levels since 2011 this week following Russian president Vladimir Putin’s decision to send troops into Ukraine. Oil prices rose to a seven-year high above $100 a barrel, while palladium, used in catalytic converters, also hit a seven-month high.

Ukraine

Ukraine Auto Industry Industrial Industry

Toyota digs for Lithium

Revenge of the Electric Car

JANUARY 20, 2010

From the Reuters post: “A sister company to Toyota Motor Corp secured a lithium supply deal in Argentina on Wednesday that could help the world’s largest automaker keep its lead in gasoline-electric hybrid cars. For more information read: Toyota in Argentine Lithium Deal for Hybrid Car Push. By Eriko Amaha for Reuters.

Toyota

Toyota Argentina Nickel Metal Hydride Lithium Ion

Renault Powertrain Strategy: Focus on Electric Motor Development for EV Powertrains, New Technologies for Conventional Engines

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 17, 2009

The first vehicles to feature all-electric powertrains will be a three-box sedan and a Kangoo-type van as early as 2011. Its launch is scheduled for 2011. The development of new consumer patterns (monthly subscriptions, pay as you go schemes, etc.) Conventional combustion engines. The new-generation 2.0 liter engines by a 2.3

Engine

Engine Motor Motors Motoring

State Department releases Keystone XL Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 1, 2014

The analysis in the Final Supplemental EIS builds on the Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement released on 1 March 2013 ( earlier post ) as well as the documents released in 2011 as part of the previous Keystone XL Pipeline application. Domestic production of crude oil has increased significantly, from approximately 5.5

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Nebraska Oil Montana

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. —WEO 2011.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Chevron leveraging information technology to optimize thermal production of heavy oil with increased recovery and reduced costs

Green Car Congress

JUNE 23, 2011

the steam required, represented by barrels of water, to produce one barrel of oil) from a peak of almost 8.5 for the first quarter of 2011, according to data from the California Department of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources (DOGGR). Using thermal recovery processes in heavy oil reservoirs depends largely on.

Chevron

Chevron Oil Oil-Sands Production

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2013

High oil prices, persistent differences in gas and electricity prices between regions and rising energy import bills in many countries focus attention on the relationship between energy and the broader economy. million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2011 to 4.1 Biofuels use triples, rising from 1.3

Oil

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions

United Airlines invests $30M in Fulcrum BioEnergy; renewable jet fuel offtake agreement, potential joint development of production

Green Car Congress

JUNE 30, 2015

United has also negotiated a long-term supply agreement with Fulcrum and, subject to availability, will have the opportunity to purchase at least 90 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel a year for a minimum of 10 years at a cost that is competitive with conventional jet fuel.

Renewable

Renewable Fuel Alternative Fuels Los Angeles

Study details viable pathway to develop sustainable aviation biofuels industry in Pacific Northwest; hydroprocessing of natural oils seen as the most immediate opportunity

Green Car Congress

MAY 25, 2011

Established hydroprocessing technologies to produce aviation fuels from natural oils. supply chains for sustainable aviation fuels utilizing oils from oilseed crops such as camelina, as well as algae and biomass. can take to support development of supply chains for aviation fuels. Lignocellulosic biomass processing.

Oil

Oil Industrial Industry Renewable

PBL analysis finds that resources are not depleted, but expensive; badly functioning markets and wrong policies

Green Car Congress

MARCH 14, 2011

This causes an increasing European dependency on imports, which, in turn, feeds the fear of a decrease in security of supply. Thus, high energy prices lead to high food prices, as transport and fertilizers become more expensive. The long-term supply prospects for agricultural commodities are uncertain. Slingerland, A.J.G.

Market

Market Netherlands Price Oil

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 4, 2011

2011-25), recognizing that the transportation electrification process will evolve in stages based on the learning that occurs in the years and decades ahead. However, consumer demand for PEVs is quite uncertain and, barring another global spike in oil prices, may be limited to a minor percentage of new vehicle purchasers (e.g.,

Plug-in

Plug-in 2015 Plug Recharge

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

Green Car Congress

JULY 19, 2012

Very broadly, they found that an LCFS would buffer the economy against global oil price spikes, trim demand for petroleum, and lessen upward pressure on gas prices. Regulate the parties responsible for producing, importing, or supplying fuel. Regulate the parties responsible for producing, importing, or supplying fuel.

Carbon

Carbon Oil-Sands Standards Design

The Game-Changing Water Revolution: Interview with Stanley Weiner

Green Car Congress

APRIL 15, 2015

Globally, water demand is threatening to dangerously outpace supply, while in the US, dry states such as Texas and California are suffering from shortages and the future forebodes more suffering. James Stafford: A global study warns that by 2030 demand for water will outstrip supply by 40%. by James Stafford for Oilprice.com.

Water

Water Oil Texas Gas

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

An on-board computer system will indicate to the driver the remaining power supply and the nearest charging spot. Electric vehicles will be available for customers in 2011. Just as wireless service providers offer smartphones at discounted prices, Project Better Place will offer discounted electric vehicles with usage pricing plans.

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can’t Agree

$10-Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC

Opinion: Consumers winning with low oil prices, for now

Forecast: global spending in 2011 on advanced oil and gas exploration technologies to total $10.17 billion

EIA: Changes in refining economics in 2011 contributed to real contrasts in US refinery utilization

Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

IHS Markit: US poised to be world’s largest LNG exporter in 2022 as China becomes top LNG importer

BP Statistical Review finds global oil share down for 12th year in a row, coal share up to highest level since 1969; renewables at 2%

Nikkei: popularity of fuel-efficient vehicles lowering demand for gasoline in Japan

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

Purdue study projects that under likely adoption rates, use of biojet fuel alone will not meet aviation emissions reduction targets for 2050; the need to go above 50% blends

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

EIA: US refineries running at record levels; gasoline demand; exports up

Study: Kerry-Lieberman Bill Would Cut US Oil Imports By Up to 40% Below Current Levels

EIA Estimates 2.1% Growth in Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in US in 2010; Still Below 1999-2008 Levels

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

KPMG survey finds majority of energy execs see oil over $121/barrel this year; shale expected to have transformative impact, investment in alternatives increasing

Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020, falling to below 2010 levels by 2035

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

Benchmark: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine risks raising costs for Europe’s auto industry

Toyota digs for Lithium

Renault Powertrain Strategy: Focus on Electric Motor Development for EV Powertrains, New Technologies for Conventional Engines

State Department releases Keystone XL Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Chevron leveraging information technology to optimize thermal production of heavy oil with increased recovery and reduced costs

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

United Airlines invests $30M in Fulcrum BioEnergy; renewable jet fuel offtake agreement, potential joint development of production

Study details viable pathway to develop sustainable aviation biofuels industry in Pacific Northwest; hydroprocessing of natural oils seen as the most immediate opportunity

PBL analysis finds that resources are not depleted, but expensive; badly functioning markets and wrong policies

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

The Game-Changing Water Revolution: Interview with Stanley Weiner

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

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