2010, 2020 and Oil Prices

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

Green Car Congress

JULY 25, 2013

World energy consumption by fuel type, 2010-2040. The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013) projects that world energy consumption will grow by 56% between 2010 and 2040, from 524 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) to 820 quadrillion Btu. Source: IEO2013.

2010

2010 Transportation Fuel Energy

Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020, falling to below 2010 levels by 2035

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 7, 2011

Global demand for oil may well peak before 2020, falling back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035, according to a multi-client research study conducted by Ricardo Strategic Consulting launched in June 2011 in association with Kevin J. Oil demand growth will have its limits in every country. Lindemer LLC.

Oil

Oil 2010 2020 Global

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. CAGR from 2012 through 2020 to about $250/kWh.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

EPA announces 2011 Presidential Green Chemistry Challenge Awards; green chemistry market opportunity projected to be $98.5B by 2020, about 2% of total market

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2011

billion by 2020. Genomatica has been producing BDO at pilot scale in 3,000 liter fermentations since the first half of 2010, and is moving to production at demonstration scale in 2011. Genomatica expects Bio-BDO to be competitive at oil prices of $45 per barrel or at natural gas prices of $3.50 per million Btu.

Green

Green Market 2011 2020

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

Net petroleum imports as a share of total US liquid fuels consumed drop from 49% in 2010 to 38% in 2020 and 36% in 2035 in AEO2012. Under the Reference case, domestic crude oil production is expected to grow by more than 20% over the coming decade; already, domestic crude oil production increased from 5.1

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 19, 2011

Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to increase from 5% to 18%. Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. per year.

Energy

Energy Economy Global Oil-Sands

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 11, 2010

The report examines the state of those seven technologies and assesses each in terms of three issues: Can it achieve cost-competitiveness with conventional energy by 2020 and be economically viable without subsidies? Base case economics for EVs in North America are very challenging, absent significant disruption in oil price or battery cost.

Solar

Solar Boston Consulting Group Power Powered

Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

Green Car Congress

MARCH 19, 2012

Summary of battery pack cost projections, 2010-2030. Governments and vehicle manufacturers will need to introduce long-term incentives and price cuts to create a sustainable European market for ultra-low emission vans (ULEV), according to a newly published report by Element Energy, commissioned by the UK Department for Transport.

Emissions

Emissions Manufacturer Market Price

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

A new study by consultancy Roland Berger defines an integrated roadmap for European road transport decarbonization to 2030 and beyond; the current regulatory framework for vehicle emissions, carbon intensity of fuels and use of renewable fuels covers only up to 2020/2021.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

Analysis Finds That First-Generation Biofuel Use of Up to 5.6% in EU Road Transport Fuels Delivers Net GHG Emissions Benefits After Factoring in Indirect Land Use Change

Green Car Congress

MARCH 26, 2010

In 2009, the European Union adopted the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) which included a 10% target for the use of renewable energy in road transport fuels by 2020. share for first-generation land-using biofuels by deducting the expected share in 2020 of other renewable road transport fuels from the 10% RED target. Background.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel 2020

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 12, 2012

The report also finds that by 2035 global energy savings could be equivalent to nearly 20% of global demand in 2010. The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

Perspective: Toyota Prius Recall Is Only a Bump in the Road in the Move Toward Electrification

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 9, 2010

This immediate problem affecting the 2010 Prius relates to software that manages the regenerative and conventional braking system. Oil price and supply dependencies will continue the search for alternative fuel sources, and battery powered vehicles can have a significant impact on that equation. Earlier post.]

Prius

Prius Toyota PHEV Hybrid

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

The report comes in the context of Victoria’s 5-year Electric Vehicle Trial (EVT), launched in 2010 ( earlier post ). The analysis is based on central forecasts of oil price, electricity. However, as EV and PHEV prices gradually reach. vehicle types (ICEs, EVs, PHEVs and HEVs). This is primarily due to.

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

Among the transportation-related updates going into AEO2011, the EIA increased the limit for blending ethanol into gasoline for approved vehicles from 10% to 15%, as a result of the waiver granted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 2010. trillion cubic feet in 2020. quadrillion Btu in 2009 to 18.4

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

The cost to the manufacturer of producing the first generation of the PHEV-10 (2010–2012) is expected to be about $6,300 more than that of the equivalent conventional mid-size car (non-hybrid), including $3,300 for the battery pack. Similarly, the PHEV-40 with a $14,000 battery pack would cost about $18,100 more.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. 2010, to above 140 $/bbl in constant 2010 dollars).

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

Green Car Congress

APRIL 12, 2012

The EU has also made a commitment to reduce emissions in sectors outside the EU ETS, including transportation, by 10% on year-2005 levels by 2020. CO 2 emissions decrease through 2050 by about 10% relative to 2010 in the “Favorable” scenario with only intra-EU27 traffic.

Transportation

Transportation Europe Climate Change Emissions

Interview with Chris Paine in the Whole Life Times

Revenge of the Electric Car

JANUARY 21, 2009

Today, EVs are making a comeback, and Paine’s chronicling the EV’s resurrection in his follow-up film, The Revenge of the Electric Car, set to jolt theaters in spring 2010. The problem is, the hydrogen car is not here until 2020 at the earliest, in terms of something that can be built in mass quantities. Is this discouraging?

EV1

EV1 Los Angeles Hydrogen GM

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Click to enlarge.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Honda May Develop Plug-In as Obama Alters U.S. Policy (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 30, 2009

Tokyo-based Honda plansstarting producing the vehicles in late 2010. “We are also developingfuel-cell cars, those companies, as well as Honda, don’t expecthydrogen to be competitive with gasoline autos until about 2020. Oil prices are going to go up. We are thinking aboutextending that application to plug-in hybrids.”

Obama

Obama Honda Plug-in Plug

EV Driven

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020, falling to below 2010 levels by 2035

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

EPA announces 2011 Presidential Green Chemistry Challenge Awards; green chemistry market opportunity projected to be $98.5B by 2020, about 2% of total market

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

Study finds government and vehicle manufacturers need to introduce long-term incentives and prices cuts to create sustainable market for ultra-low emission vans

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Analysis Finds That First-Generation Biofuel Use of Up to 5.6% in EU Road Transport Fuels Delivers Net GHG Emissions Benefits After Factoring in Indirect Land Use Change

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Perspective: Toyota Prius Recall Is Only a Bump in the Road in the Move Toward Electrification

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

US National Research Council Report Finds Plug-in Hybrid Costs Likely to Remain High; Fleet Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions Benefits Will Be Modest for Decades

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

Interview with Chris Paine in the Whole Life Times

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Honda May Develop Plug-In as Obama Alters U.S. Policy (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Stay Connected