Forecast, Oil Prices and Purchase

Report suggests low-speed electric vehicles could affect Chinese demand for gasoline and disrupt oil prices worldwide

Green Car Congress

MAY 22, 2019

Low-speed electric vehicles (LSEVs) could reduce China’s demand for gasoline and, in turn, impact global oil prices, according to a new issue brief by an expert in the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. “ —Gabriel Collins.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Gasoline-Electric Gasoline Oil

Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 21, 2015

In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts , Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., Under a conservative scenario, Navigant forecasts more than 5.8 Under a conservative scenario, Navigant forecasts more than 5.8 Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”.

Light

Light Sale Global Oil Prices

IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

Green Car Congress

APRIL 22, 2013

Forecast by LDV scenario (millions). Under its most conservative of scenarios, more than 5 million light-duty electric-drive vehicles will be on the road in the US by 2035, according to a new forecast by IEE , an institue of the Edison Foundation. —“Forecast of On-Road Electric Transportation in the US (2010-2035)”.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Vehicles 2012 Light

GlobalData: COVID-19 puts EV sales and CO2 fleet emission targets at risk

Green Car Congress

APRIL 8, 2020

GlobalData research shows that lower oil prices as a result of the COVID-19 crisis could reduce electric vehicle demand and impair EU efforts to significantly reduce average new vehicle CO 2 emissions in the European car market. However, the amount of time taken to make up that price differential depends on the cost of fuel.

CO2

CO2 Fleet Emissions Oil Prices

Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 16, 2010

National programs encouraging the growth of the PEV sector include the establishment of aggressive goals, subsidies for EV purchasers, research and development support and demonstration projects, tax incentives, regulation and standardization, and public education programs.

Asia

Asia 2015 China Sale

Cascadia Capital forecasts flurry of MA and commercialization in clean tech in 2011; US Congress to discard Cap and Trade

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 13, 2010

bank serving both private and public growth companies, forecasts the. Rising Oil Prices Lead to Investments in Natural Gas. Oil markets are traditionally sensitive to a pick up in economic activity. As the economy continues to slowly improve over the next 12 months, Cascadia predicts that oil will hit $100 per barrel.

Congress

Congress 2011 Clean Cleaning

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. In DB’s Fall 2009 note, they had forecast 12% growth.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

Such economic benefits could be realized earlier through effective policies which reduce first mover costs in the short term and promote rapid take-up once non-ICE vehicle price premiums reduce to levels that make them affordable to. The analysis is based on central forecasts of oil price, electricity. Vehicle choice.

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

Green Car Congress

MAY 22, 2013

Overall, worldwide sales forecasts—and hence the related production forecasts for EVs and PHEVs—are more conservative than in the preceding survey period. Since the previous survey, forecasts for vehicle production in Germany, France and South Korea have experienced positive development but remain at comparably low levels.

South Korea

South Korea Sale France Plug-in

Center for Automotive Research releases study on estimated US distribution pattern of electric vehicles through 2015; focus on incentives

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 13, 2011

The study is not a forecast sales of electric vehicles; rather, it estimates electric vehicle deployment by state, using other forecasts of total electric vehicle sales in the US to generate a reasonable approximation of what electric vehicle sales might look like for the period 2012 to 2015.

2015

2015 Electric Vehicles Vehicles Sale

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Green Car Congress

JULY 14, 2009

In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. Electric Cars in the United States: A New Model with Forecasts to 2030” was written by Thomas Becker, a Ph.D.

Electric Cars

Electric Cars Battery Batteries Market

Economic Impact Study Finds Grid-Enabled Vehicle Policies in Electrification Coalition Roadmap Would Result in Substantial Economic Benefit for US

Green Car Congress

APRIL 9, 2010

Shortly after releasing the Roadmap, the Coalition commissioned the Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland and Keybridge Research to study the long-term economic effects of their policy proposals. Global Demand for Oil. World demand for oil would fall, leading to lower world oil prices.

Grid

Grid Vehicles 2008 Oil

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 27, 2011

forecasts of population and gross state product, combined. generation forecasting, breakthroughs in storage technology, replacement of steam generation with fast-response gas. reduction in fuel costs even with electricity prices doubled. and oil prices at $100/barrel, as well as shifting cash flows. 875 Mt CO 2 e.

Climate

Climate California Fuel Gas-Electric

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 18, 2010

AECOM developed an economic model to assess viability and a vehicle choice model to forecast take-up of different engine configurations. Secondly, by directly estimating take-up it is possible to consider the impact of various potential sensitivities around prices (electricity price, fuel price, vehicle price) and how these affect take-up.

Australia

Australia Market Plug-in Plug

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. The decline reflects increased domestic production of both petroleum and natural gas, increased use of biofuels, and lower demand resulting from the adoption of new vehicle fuel efficiency standards and rising energy prices. Biomass and biofuels growth is slower.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. Emissions Forecasts Fuels Oil'

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 4, 2011

However, consumer demand for PEVs is quite uncertain and, barring another global spike in oil prices, may be limited to a minor percentage of new vehicle purchasers (e.g., Automakers could ramp up PEV production if consumer demand proves to be larger than expected. Market Drivers. The Need for “Truth in Advertising.”

Plug-in

Plug-in 2015 Plug Recharge

Antelope Valley Transit orders up to 85 electric buses from BYD; first US all-electric public transit fleet

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 12, 2016

Over the lifetime of the new electric bus fleet, the transit agency forecasts it could save more than $46 million compared to an all-diesel bus fleet, equivalent to $46,000 per bus per year in savings.

All-Electric

All-Electric Fleet BYD Los Angeles

Opinion: Saudi Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide?

Green Car Congress

AUGUST 13, 2015

In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market’s swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices. Prices rebounded to $60 for a few months, before falling once again below $50.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia Oil Iraq Iran

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035. Oil and the Transport Sector: Reconfirming the End of Cheap Oil. Click to enlarge. Electric vehicles.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

EV Driven

Report suggests low-speed electric vehicles could affect Chinese demand for gasoline and disrupt oil prices worldwide

Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half

IEE forecasts electric-drive LDVs could constitute between 2 to 12% of US vehicle stock by 2035

GlobalData: COVID-19 puts EV sales and CO2 fleet emission targets at risk

Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

Cascadia Capital forecasts flurry of MA and commercialization in clean tech in 2011; US Congress to discard Cap and Trade

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Roland Berger E-Mobility Index finds government subsidies for and projected sales of xEVs declining worldwide

Center for Automotive Research releases study on estimated US distribution pattern of electric vehicles through 2015; focus on incentives

UC Berkeley Study Concludes Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate Mass-Market Adoption of Electric Cars; Baseline Scenario Projects EVs Reaching 64% of New LDV Sales in 2030

Economic Impact Study Finds Grid-Enabled Vehicle Policies in Electrification Coalition Roadmap Would Result in Substantial Economic Benefit for US

Study finds no alternative to widespread switching of direct fuel uses to electricity to meet 2050 California GHG targets; putting detail in climate wedges

Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

Antelope Valley Transit orders up to 85 electric buses from BYD; first US all-electric public transit fleet

Opinion: Saudi Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide?

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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