Coal, Market, Oil Prices and Resource

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 22, 2014

The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Carbon

CSIRO and partners to test Direct Injection Carbon Engine to reduce brown coal emissions by up to 50%

Green Car Congress

APRIL 28, 2014

DICE involves converting coal or biomass into a water-based slurry (called micronised refined carbon, MRC) that is directly injected into a large, specially adapted diesel engine. The project is supported by industry partners including Exergen, Ignite Energy Resources, AGL, MAN Diesel & Turbo and EnergyAustralia.

Coal

Coal Carbon Engine Emissions

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 7, 2021

Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability. Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

Global

Global Energy Emissions Asia

Study finds that dry-feed gasification for coal-to-liquids is more efficient, lower-emitting and cheaper than slurry-feed; CCS cost-effective for reduction of CO2

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 24, 2010

Comparison of coal consumption and CO 2 emissions for co-production and separate production of liquids and power. Conventional CTL plant gasifies coal to produce a syngas which is then converted in a Fischer-Tropsch reactor to products. Even with CCS, the liquid product costs are comparable to recent crude oil prices.

Coal

Coal Oil Prices CO2 Gas-Electric

Report finds Coal-to-Liquids and Oil Shale pose significant financial and environmental risks to investors

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 19, 2010

Ceres recently released a new report concluding that coal-to-liquid (CTL) and oil shale technologies face significant environmental and financial obstacles—from water constraints, to technological uncertainties to regulatory and market risks—that pose substantial financial risks for investors involved in such projects.

Coal

Coal Oil Water Oil Prices

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

Green Car Congress

JULY 25, 2013

With prices expected to increase in the long term, however, the world oil price in real 2011 dollars reaches $106 per barrel in 2020 and $163 per barrel in 2040, according to IEO2013. Non-petroleum liquids resources from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources grow on average by 3.7% million barrels per day.

2010

2010 Transportation Fuel Energy

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. Industrial natural gas demand recovers, reversing recent trend.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 11, 2010

If these barriers can be overcome, advanced biofuels could significantly disrupt the status quo in fuel markets. Base case economics for EVs in North America are very challenging, absent significant disruption in oil price or battery cost. Cleaner coal through carbon capture and sequestration. Click to enlarge.

Solar

Solar Boston Consulting Group Power Powered

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 20, 2011

World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil 2008 Oil Prices

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. Tcf in the High Oil and Gas Resource case.

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 23, 2017

Beginning with its February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA incorporated revisions to historical international liquids consumption data into the STEO’s international liquid fuels market balances. This review consisted of a closer look at the refined products markets in China, and also a sectoral analysis of energy use.

2000

2000 2016 Fuel China

Alternative Fuel Technologies, Inc. Receives New Order for DME Feed Pumps From Shanghai Diesel Engine Company

Green Car Congress

APRIL 25, 2010

The company’s ultima goal is series production of DME fuel systems for the global automotive market by 2011. Dimethyl ether is a diesel fuel replacement that can be produced from abundant resources including natural gas, landfill methane, coal and biomass.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Diesel Engine Companies

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Reference case projections for US energy markets through 2035. EIA added a premium to the capital cost of CO 2 -intensive technologies to reflect current market behavior regarding possible future policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 25, 2009

The focus of the work was on alternative jet fuels that could be available commercially in the next decade using primarily North American resources. For world crude oil prices in the range of $100 per barrel, this amounts to a price impact of roughly $5 to $13 per barrel. million bpd.

MIT

MIT Oil-Sands Commercial Available

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2012

Bartis and RAND colleague Lawrence van Bibbe were the authors of a 2011 RAND report concluding that if the US military increased its use of alternative jet and naval fuels that can be produced from coal or various renewable resources, including seed oils, waste oils and algae, there would be no direct benefit to the nation’s armed forces.

Price

Price Oil-Sands Turkey Fuel

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Green Car Congress

JUNE 7, 2017

Under their optimistic scenario (OPT)—which is based on the assumption that EVs are market-competitive with gasoline vehicles, in particular after 2025—they find 15% and 47% adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

Emissions

Emissions Economy Gasoline-Electric Coal

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. The decline reflects increased domestic production of both petroleum and natural gas, increased use of biofuels, and lower demand resulting from the adoption of new vehicle fuel efficiency standards and rising energy prices. Biomass and biofuels growth is slower.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 12, 2012

barely rises in OECD countries, although there is a pronounced shift away from oil, coal (and, in some countries, nuclear) towards natural gas and renewables. Links between regional gas markets will strengthen as liquefied natural gas trade becomes more flexible and contract terms evolve. Energy demand. — WEO-2012.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

Green Car Congress

MAY 27, 2009

World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44% between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2009 ( IEO2009 ) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

2006

2006 Emissions Energy Oil-Sands

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 13, 2011

Electrification will also reduce oil dependence, providing foreign policy benefits and the potential to reduce real oil prices and oil price volatility. With the current fuel mix of the US power sector (about half coal, about 30% “carbon-free”), CO 2 emissions for HEVs and EVs are similar.

Transportation

Transportation MIT Oil Prices Oil

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Historical scenario. (A)

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2010

Because the carbon intensity metric of fuels within the LCFS accounts not only for a fuel’s physical characteristics, but also the energy necessary to bring the transportation fuel to market in California, chemically identical fuels are assigned different carbon intensities under the LCFS, the complaint notes. LCFS Complaint.

California

California Oil-Sands Oil 2005

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 28, 2011

In setting priorities for our R&D activities, DOE will support technologies that can integrate with existing energy infrastructure to ease market adoption. Electrification is the next greatest opportunity to dramatically reduce or eliminate oil consumption in the light-duty vehicle fleet.

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Economy Light Fuel

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

Other liquids refer to natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids [BTL]), gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), kerogen (i.e., oil shale), and refinery gain. Rising world oil prices attract investment in areas previously considered uneconomic.

Asia

Asia Transportation Oil-Sands Oil Prices

VW Chief Executive Says Company Will Introduce EVs Based on the Up! New Small Family in 2013; Cautions Against Electro-Hype

Green Car Congress

JULY 4, 2009

Winterkorn noted that the industry is experiencing its worst crisis in decades, with a collapse in the global market of 18% in the first half of this year. Volkswagen is Europe’s largest automaker, and saw its global new vehicle market share increase to 11% during the first quarter of 2009. Limited fossil fuel resources.

2013

2013 Companies Gas-Electric Recharge

Comprehensive modeling study finds electric drive vehicle deployment has little observed effect on US system-wide emissions

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 15, 2014

This paper employs an energy system model to meet the following objectives: (1) identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high market penetration in the U.S. 42% of the LDV market with an average value of 24%—a figure broadly consistent with other projections of EDV market development. —Babaee et al.

Emissions

Emissions Oil Prices Vehicles Oil

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2013

China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The US moves steadily towards meeting all of its energy needs from domestic resources by 2035. Oil use grows, but in a narrowing set of markets. Mobility and oil. Source: IEA.

Oil

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Alternative technologies, such as hybrid and electric vehicles that use oil more efficiently or not at all, continue to advance but they take time to penetrate markets. Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. billion in 2035. Click to enlarge.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

RAND study concludes use of alternative fuels by US military would convey no direct military benefit; recommends energy efficiency instead

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 25, 2011

If the US military increases its use of alternative jet and naval fuels that can be produced from coal or various renewable resources, including seed oils, waste oils and algae, there will be no direct benefit to the nation’s armed forces, according to a new RAND Corporation study.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Fuel Energy Coal

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

Renewables That Even Coal-Based Utilities Can Love. DE (1) Agricultural offsets (1) Always On Going Green (1) Applied Materials (1) Appropedia (1) Aqua Resources Fund (1) Arnold Schwarzenegger (1) BMWG.F (1) Thinking Globally, Acting Locally San Francisco City Carbon Collobarative 18th and 1. 2) Chevy Volt (2) China (2) ECOD3.SA

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

Hawaii opts for EVs and renewable energy

Revenge of the Electric Car

DECEMBER 3, 2008

Clean base load energy is particularly important since that is usually generated by nukes, burning coal or, in the case of Hawaii, oil. As Hawaii taps into more of this clean geothermal energy, they can retire, one by one, their dirty, expensive oil burners. Hawaii is a relatively small market with high energy costs.

Hawaii

Hawaii Renewable Energy San Francisco

EV Driven

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

CSIRO and partners to test Direct Injection Carbon Engine to reduce brown coal emissions by up to 50%

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

Study finds that dry-feed gasification for coal-to-liquids is more efficient, lower-emitting and cheaper than slurry-feed; CCS cost-effective for reduction of CO2

Report finds Coal-to-Liquids and Oil Shale pose significant financial and environmental risks to investors

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

Alternative Fuel Technologies, Inc. Receives New Order for DME Feed Pumps From Shanghai Diesel Engine Company

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

VW Chief Executive Says Company Will Introduce EVs Based on the Up! New Small Family in 2013; Cautions Against Electro-Hype

Comprehensive modeling study finds electric drive vehicle deployment has little observed effect on US system-wide emissions

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

RAND study concludes use of alternative fuels by US military would convey no direct military benefit; recommends energy efficiency instead

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Hawaii opts for EVs and renewable energy

Stay Connected