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Understanding the variability of GHG life cycle studies of oil sands production

Green Car Congress

Full-fuel-cycle GHG emissions estimates for reformulated gasoline pathways by LCA study. He found that the variation in oil sands GHG estimates is due to a variety of causes. These include oil sands, enhanced oil recovery, coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids synthetic fuels, and oil shale.

Oil-Sands 225
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Argonne study finds shale gas GHG lifecycle emissions 6% lower than natural gas, 23% lower than gasoline and 33% lower than coal; upstream methane leakage a key contributor

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Gasoline section shows results for fuel derived from both conventional oil and oil sands. However, the range in values for shale and conventional gas overlap, so there is a statistical uncertainty whether shale gas emissions are actually lower than those of conventional natural gas. Click to enlarge.

Gas 284
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ExxonMobil Outlook projects hybrids and advanced vehicles to account for nearly 50% of cars globally by 2040; fuel demand for for personal vehicles to peak and decline, while commercial transportation demand rises 70%

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While oil will remain the most widely used fuel, overall energy demand will be reshaped by a continued shift toward less-carbon-intensive energy source as well as steep improvements in energy efficiency in areas such as transportation, where the expanded use of advanced and hybrid vehicles will help push average new-car fuel economy to 48 mpg (4.9

Personal 408
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ExxonMobil Outlook: 35% growth in energy demand by 2040; hybrids to account for ~50% of new vehicle sales

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ExxonMobil projects that meeting future energy demand will be supported by more efficient energy-saving practices and technologies; increased use of less-carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas, nuclear and renewables; as well as the continued development of technology advances to develop new energy sources. Transportation.

Oil-Sands 309
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New petroleum refining lifecycle model finds the variability in GHG emissions from refining different crudes as significant as magnitude expected in upstream operations

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Comparison of GHGenius, JACOBS, TIAX, and the new PRELIM gasoline greenhouse gas (GHG) estimates using base case estimates and variations from the scenario analysis. Annual GHG emissions from a large refinery are comparable to the emissions of a typical 500 MW coal-fired power plant. Credit: ACS, Abella and Bergerson.

Oil-Sands 236
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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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Across OECD nations, the Outlook assumes the implied cost of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will reach about $80 per tonne in 2040. The Outlook for Energy identifies a significant evolution in the trade of oil and other liquids. Half of that increase will come from the Asia Pacific region, led by China.

Energy 252
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National Academies Report Examines Hidden Cost of Energy Production and Use in US; Estimates $120B in 2005

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A new report from the National Research Council examines and, when possible, estimates, “hidden” costs of energy production and use—such as the damage air pollution imposes on human health—that are not reflected in market prices of coal, oil, other energy sources, or the electricity and gasoline produced from them.

2005 246