Coal, Cost, Forecast and Oil Prices

EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

Green Car Congress

APRIL 7, 2021

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an increase in demand for petroleum products during the 2021 summer driving season as the impacts of COVID-19 diminish in the United States. EIA also forecasts the Brent crude oil price will average $64 per barrel this summer, a 78% increase from last summer’s average of $36 per barrel.

2019

2019 Fuel Coal 2020

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

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OCTOBER 7, 2021

Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability. Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

Global

Global Energy Emissions Asia

EIA STEO projects higher US crude production, increases in travel and gasoline demand

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APRIL 11, 2017

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US crude oil production, which averaged an estimated 8.9 That level is higher than originally forecast, exceeding the previous record level of 9.6 For summer 2017, EIA forecasts motor gasoline consumption to average 9.5

Gasoline

Gasoline Gasoline-Electric Production Oil

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

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FEBRUARY 23, 2017

The estimates developed in the study have now been incorporated into EIA’s historical data and forecasts of petroleum and other liquids consumption in China. The main effect of this change on the forecasted STEO liquid fuels market balances is that the higher consumption in 2014 raises the baseline to which the STEO forecast benchmarks.

2000

2000 2016 Fuel China

IRENA report finds renewable power costs at parity or below fossil fuels in many parts of world

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 17, 2015

The cost of generating power from renewable energy sources has reached parity or dropped below the cost of fossil fuels for many technologies in many parts of the world, according to a new report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Real weighted average cost of capital is 7.5% Source: IRENA.

Renewable

Renewable Parts Power Powered

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 11, 2010

BCG’s analysis finds that cellulosic ethanol is on the verge of becoming cost-competitive with gasoline at $3/gal US. The costs of these alternative energy technologies are falling rapidly, and they are on the path to becoming cost-competitive within the next five to ten years, if not sooner. Click to enlarge.

Solar

Solar Boston Consulting Group Power Powered

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

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JUNE 7, 2017

They adapted cost and performance projections for LDV technologies from the National Research Council (2013) optimistic case. The model computes energy balances at all levels of an energy system from primary sources to energy services, supplies energy services at minimum total system cost, and balances commodities in each time period.

Emissions

Emissions Economy Gasoline-Electric Coal

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

In developing its projections, the EIA implemented a new approach to forecasting VMT, based on an analysis of VMT by age cohorts and the aging of the driving population over the course of the projection. Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation.

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

It also updated the costs and sizes of electric and plug-in hybrid electric batteries and revised downward light-duty vehicle travel demand due to the adoption of a new estimation technique. According to the forecast, unconventional vehicles will represent more than 40% of US light-duty vehicle sales in 2035.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

EIA added a premium to the capital cost of CO 2 -intensive technologies to reflect current market behavior regarding possible future policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, the US electric power sector’s historical reliance on coal-fired power plants has begun to decline. Click to enlarge.

Oil

Oil 2005 Production 2010

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. The decline reflects increased domestic production of both petroleum and natural gas, increased use of biofuels, and lower demand resulting from the adoption of new vehicle fuel efficiency standards and rising energy prices. Biomass and biofuels growth is slower.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

KPMG survey finds majority of energy execs see oil over $121/barrel this year; shale expected to have transformative impact, investment in alternatives increasing

Green Car Congress

MAY 12, 2011

The executives also foresee shale oil and gas having a transformative effect on helping to meet the world’s energy needs, according to the results of the 9 th Annual Energy Survey conducted by the KPMG Global Energy Institute. 69% anticipate operating costs will go up over the next 12 months as well.

Oil

Oil Energy Wind 2011

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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NOVEMBER 12, 2012

barely rises in OECD countries, although there is a pronounced shift away from oil, coal (and, in some countries, nuclear) towards natural gas and renewables. In the New Policies Scenario, global coal demand increases by 21% and is heavily focused in China and India. Energy demand. — WEO-2012. Renewables.

Global

Global 2012 Energy Oil

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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JULY 2, 2013

The underlying assumption is that the world will immediately use whatever oil can be pumped from the ground, and that supply is independent of demand—that is, oil exploration investments bear no relation to the current oil price or expectations of future demand. Emissions Forecasts Fuels Oil'

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 10, 2014

Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). Other liquids refer to natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids [BTL]), gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), kerogen (i.e.,

Asia

Asia Transportation Oil-Sands Oil Prices

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2013

China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. High oil prices, persistent differences in gas and electricity prices between regions and rising energy import bills in many countries focus attention on the relationship between energy and the broader economy.

Oil

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035. Oil and the Transport Sector: Reconfirming the End of Cheap Oil. Click to enlarge. Electric vehicles.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

Renewables That Even Coal-Based Utilities Can Love. Annual use of an EV should be less than the average cost of $8,000 per year for using a gasoline in many countries including the USA. Thinking Globally, Acting Locally San Francisco City Carbon Collobarative 18th and 1. ► January (13) What Goes Down, Must Go Up? SZ (1) 6753.T

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

EV Driven

EIA expects US motor fuel consumption to increase this summer, but remain below 2019 levels

EIA projects increases in global energy consumption and emissions through 2050

EIA STEO projects higher US crude production, increases in travel and gasoline demand

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

IRENA report finds renewable power costs at parity or below fossil fuels in many parts of world

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

KPMG survey finds majority of energy execs see oil over $121/barrel this year; shale expected to have transformative impact, investment in alternatives increasing

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

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