2013, Oil Prices and Resource

With oil prices low, early signs of a pullback in drilling activity

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 14, 2014

With oil prices low and showing no sign of an immediate rebound, the industry is beginning to pull back on spending. Oil prices have dropped around 30 percent since summer highs, raising fears among producers across the globe. Yet, many oil majors are relatively diversified, with large holdings downstream.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Chevron

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 22, 2014

The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Carbon

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

Shell to halt 80K bpd Carmon Creek oil sands project

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 28, 2015

Royal Dutch Shell plc will not continue construction of the 80,000 barrel per day Carmon Creek thermal in situ oil sands project located in Alberta, Canada. We are making changes to Shell’s portfolio mix by reviewing our longer-term upstream options world-wide, and managing affordability and exposure in the current world of lower oil prices.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil Re-Charge Oil Prices

BP approves revamped $9B Mad Dog Phase 2 project in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico; down from original $20B cost

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 4, 2016

BP has sanctioned the $9-billion Mad Dog Phase 2 project in the United States, despite the current low oil price environment. Oil production is expected to begin in late 2021. In 2013, BP (operator, with 60.5% The Mad Dog platform is currently BP’s only floating spar facility in the Gulf. Earlier post.).

Mexico

Mexico Chevron Oil Oil Prices

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

Green Car Congress

JULY 25, 2013

The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013) projects that world energy consumption will grow by 56% between 2010 and 2040, from 524 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) to 820 quadrillion Btu. World energy consumption by fuel type, 2010-2040. Source: IEO2013. Click to enlarge.

2010

2010 Transportation Fuel Energy

ICCT updates US airline fuel efficiency rankings; Alaska stays on top, American on bottom

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 22, 2015

from 2013 to 2014. In 2013 this number rose to 149, and reached 150 in 2014. years old, weighted by passenger-miles flown) than in 2013, while previous years showed an aging fleet. Commercial aircraft accounted for 11% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the US transportation sector in 2013.

Alaska

Alaska Fuel 2014 2013

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

The US Energy Information Administration released its Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Reference case (the Early Release ), which highlights a growth in total US energy production that exceeds growth in total US energy consumption through 2040. Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

IIASA: removing fossil fuel subsidies will not reduce CO2 emissions as much as hoped

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 8, 2018

However, the study found that the growth of CO 2 emissions by 2030 would only be 1-5% lower than if subsidies had been maintained, regardless of whether oil prices are low or high. This is facilitated by today’s low oil prices. This equates to 0.5-2 —Keywan Riahi, study co-author and IIASA Energy Program director.

Emissions

Emissions Fuel CO2 Oil

Increase in US rig count will not cap oil prices

Green Car Congress

JUNE 23, 2016

The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices. by David Yager for Oilprice.com.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Oil Price Oil-Sands

VTT study concludes gasification-based pathways can deliver low-carbon fuels from biomass for about 1.90-2.65 US$/gallon

Green Car Congress

JULY 4, 2013

The horizontal red lines show the comparable price of gasoline (before tax, refining margin 0.3 $/gal, exchange rate: 1 € = 1.326 $) with crude oil prices 100 $/bbl and 150 $/bbl. 2013) Liquid transportation fuels via large-scale fluidised-bed gasification of lignocellulosic biomass. Source: VTT. 0.7 €/liter (app.

Carbon

Carbon Fuel Finland Gasoline

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 23, 2017

After completing a re-assessment of energy use for a broad range of countries for the period 2013-14, EIA updated its historical data, with the largest changes occurring in China and other non-OECD countries. MTG units involve high capital costs and are only cost-competitive when oil prices are high.

2000

2000 2016 Fuel China

VW Chief Executive Says Company Will Introduce EVs Based on the Up! New Small Family in 2013; Cautions Against Electro-Hype

Green Car Congress

JULY 4, 2009

New Small Family ( earlier post ) in 2013. Within a decade, he added, Volkswagen wants to offer significant numbers of pure electric cars at affordable prices and with the range expected by customers. Limited fossil fuel resources. The perspective of rising oil prices is a turboboost for a change in customer behavior, he said.

2013

2013 Companies Gas-Electric Recharge

Australian techno-economic analysis of renewable aviation fuels identifies research priorities to lower the high costs

Green Car Congress

MAY 22, 2013

2013), Technoeconomic analysis of renewable aviation fuel from microalgae, Pongamia pinnata , and sugarcane. Klein-Marcuschamer, D., Dietzgen, R. Gresshoff, P. Hankamer, B., Heimann, K., Stephens, E., Speight, R. and Nielsen, L.

Renewable

Renewable Fuel Australia Oil

IRENA report finds renewable power costs at parity or below fossil fuels in many parts of world

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 17, 2015

The report, “ Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014 ”, concludes that biomass, hydropower, geothermal and onshore wind are all competitive with or cheaper than coal, oil and gas-fired power stations, even without financial support and despite falling oil prices. Source: IRENA. Click to enlarge. —Adnan Z. Source: IRENA.

Renewable

Renewable Parts Power Powered

ICCT suggests minor changes to Fed tax policy to cut higher investment risk of 2nd-gen biofuels and advance the industry

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 22, 2013

In addition, the industry faces barriers from the impending “blend wall” of 10% ethanol in gasoline and uncertainty regarding policies and oil prices. Environmental Protection Agency drastically lowering the amount of cellulosic biofuel that must be blended into gasoline and diesel each year. —Miller et al.

Tax

Tax Tax Credit Industrial Industry

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2013

The newly released 2013 edition of the IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) depicts a world in which some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten; importers are becoming exporters, while exporters are among the major sources of growing demand. —WEO-2013. Energy demand growth moves to Asia. Source: IEA. Gt by 2035.

Oil

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions

Opinion: Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 6, 2015

While oil and natural gas are crucial to Russia, Russia’s crude and natural gas are crucial to its neighbors on the Eurasian landmass. mmbbl/day) in 2013. Russia’s oil and natural gas are also important to its Asian and Central Asian neighbors. Russia supplied about 30 percent (146.6 Natural gas data from Gazprom).

Russia

Russia Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq

Center for Automotive Research releases study on estimated US distribution pattern of electric vehicles through 2015; focus on incentives

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 13, 2011

That estimate puts a total of 496,000 plug-in electric vehicles on US roads in 2015, with annual sales of 27,000 for 2011; 77,000 for 2012; 116,000 for 2013; 136,000 for 2014; and 140,000 for 2015. The study uses hybrid vehicle sales in each of the 50 states as a proxy for. —CAR study. Click to enlarge.

2015

2015 Electric Vehicles Vehicles Sale

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. —Brandt et al.

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

While domestic crude oil production is projected to level off and then slowly decline after 2020 in the Reference case, natural gas production grows steadily, with a 56% increase between 2012 and 2040, when production reaches 37.6 T he Brent crude oil spot price declines from $112 per barrel (bbl) (in 2012 dollars) in 2012 to $92/bbl in 2017.

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

Green Car Congress

JUNE 7, 2017

They adapted cost and performance projections for LDV technologies from the National Research Council (2013) optimistic case. The team explored other scenarios including different levels of CO 2 and CH 4 fees applied to the BAU and OPT scenarios; different levels of LDV demand; and different oil prices. Henze, and Jana B.

Emissions

Emissions Economy Gasoline-Electric Coal

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 8, 2011

and model 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015. The cumulative impacts of the various policy initiatives, the experience of the early purchasers of electric-drive vehicles and future oil prices will all play a role in determining future consumer demand. Estimated US supply of PEVs from 2011-2015. Fisker Karma EREV. Fisker Nina EREV.

2015

2015 Plug-in Tax Credit Plug

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 10, 2009

Will be competitive at an oil price of $45 to $90 at their commercial date. Technologies that stretch today’s assets and resources. These are “no-regret” technologies, as they represent actions that can be made today to make a significant impact on CO 2 , energy security and the optimization of local resources.

Transportation

Transportation Supplies Emissions Fuel

Opinion: Busting The “Canadian Bakken” Myth

Green Car Congress

JUNE 12, 2015

It found the “thick and geographically extensive” Canol formation is expected to contain 145 billion barrels of oil, while the “much thinner” Bluefish shale contains 46 billion barrels. The company gobbled up 189,000 net acres in the Canol, and in 2013 did some drilling at one of its four licenses in the play. billion barrels.

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Oil North Dakota Oil Prices

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 29, 2014

DNV and GL merged in September 2013 to form DNV GL—the world’s largest ship and offshore classification society, the leading technical advisor to the global oil and gas industry, and a leading expert for the energy value chain including renewables and energy efficiency. Ship electrification and renewables.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Fuel Gas-Electric Mariner

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

Green Car Congress

MARCH 2, 2013

The DOS SEIS accordingly takes a detailed look at life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of petroleum products from Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) oil sands crudes compared with reference crudes and the potential impact the pipeline might have on climate change as well as on the future development of the oils sands resource in Canada.

Climate Change

Climate Change Oil-Sands Nebraska Climate

State Department releases Keystone XL Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 1, 2014

The analysis in the Final Supplemental EIS builds on the Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement released on 1 March 2013 ( earlier post ) as well as the documents released in 2011 as part of the previous Keystone XL Pipeline application. Domestic production of crude oil has increased significantly, from approximately 5.5

Oil-Sands

Oil-Sands Nebraska Oil Montana

EV Driven

With oil prices low, early signs of a pullback in drilling activity

BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Shell to halt 80K bpd Carmon Creek oil sands project

BP approves revamped $9B Mad Dog Phase 2 project in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico; down from original $20B cost

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

ICCT updates US airline fuel efficiency rankings; Alaska stays on top, American on bottom

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

IIASA: removing fossil fuel subsidies will not reduce CO2 emissions as much as hoped

Increase in US rig count will not cap oil prices

VTT study concludes gasification-based pathways can deliver low-carbon fuels from biomass for about 1.90-2.65 US$/gallon

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

VW Chief Executive Says Company Will Introduce EVs Based on the Up! New Small Family in 2013; Cautions Against Electro-Hype

Australian techno-economic analysis of renewable aviation fuels identifies research priorities to lower the high costs

IRENA report finds renewable power costs at parity or below fossil fuels in many parts of world

ICCT suggests minor changes to Fed tax policy to cut higher investment risk of 2nd-gen biofuels and advance the industry

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

Opinion: Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

Center for Automotive Research releases study on estimated US distribution pattern of electric vehicles through 2015; focus on incentives

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

US DOE progress report says 1M plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable; not likely to be constrained by production capacity

Accenture Reports Identifies 12 Disruptive Technologies Most Likely to Transform Supply and Demand of Transport Fuels and Cut Emissions Within Next 10 Years

Opinion: Busting The “Canadian Bakken” Myth

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

State Department releases Keystone XL Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

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