Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. Energy consumption for light-duty vehicles grows from 16.7

Gas 199

Gas 2011 Price Energy 199

Green Car Congress

APRIL 22, 2013

Under its most conservative of scenarios, more than 5 million light-duty electric-drive vehicles will be on the road in the US by 2035, according to a new forecast by IEE , an institue of the Edison Foundation. In this, electric light duty vehicles (LDVs) represent 2% of the registered vehicle stock (5.3 Source: IEE. Click to enlarge.

Oil Prices 294

Oil Prices Vehicles 2012 Light 294

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 25, 2010

Canadian Oil Sands Trust, the largest stakeholder (36.74%) in the Syncrude oil sands project, announced plans to increase the synthetic crude oil production capacity at Syncrude Mildred Lake upgrader to 425,000 barrels per day by 2020 from 350,000 now. Marcel Coutu, Canadian Oil Sands’ President and CEO. and Imperial Oil.

Oil-Sands 199

Oil-Sands Oil 2020 Canada 199

Green Car Congress

JUNE 23, 2011

Chevron’s focus on optimizing the thermal management of the Kern River field has resulted in a steady drop in the steam:oil ratio (barrels steam water per barrel oil), resulting in improved economics of the field even with slowly declining production. Data: California DOGGR. Click to enlarge. Source: Chevron. Click to enlarge.

Chevron 244

Chevron Oil Oil-Sands Production 244

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 6, 2014

Their model tracks the evolution of the light-duty vehicle parc in the US, its fuel usage, and corresponding demands for energy stocks. Among their findings were: RFS2 is satisfied at extreme oil prices (at least $215/barrel). This oil price encourages biofuel use in the RFS2 timeframe, but not in the long run.

Oil Prices 246

Oil Prices Gasoline-Electric Gasoline Oil 246

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. Tcf in the High Oil and Gas Resource case.

2020 150

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices 150

Green Car Congress

APRIL 10, 2009

A new study by the French institute Enerdata, commissioned by the European Federation for Transport & Environment (T&E), suggests that the European CO 2 standards for new vehicles due to come into effect in 2012 will lead not only to a European savings on oil (mainly via lower oil import volumes) but also to slightly lower global oil prices.

Oil 150

Oil Standards Price Oil Prices 150

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 23, 2012

It also assumed implementation of existing regulations that enable the building of new energy infrastructure and resource extraction. Under the Reference case, domestic crude oil production is expected to grow by more than 20% over the coming decade; already, domestic crude oil production increased from 5.1

Oil 210

Oil 2005 Production 2010 210

Green Car Congress

JUNE 23, 2016

The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices. by David Yager for Oilprice.com.

Oil Prices 150

Oil Prices Oil Price Oil-Sands 150

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 9, 2017

Photocatalytic (visible light) cylcoadditions would increase energy density upon cyclization by at least 100 kJ/mol. With the successful scale-up of this technology, it is believed that Gevo’s HEDFs could be produced at a lower cost than the petroleum-based equivalent, even at current oil prices.

Renewable 150

Renewable Energy Fuel Minnesota 150

Green Car Congress

MARCH 2, 2013

The US Department of State (DOS) has released its Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) in response to TransCanada’s May 2012 application for the Keystone XL pipeline that would run from Canada’s oils sands in Alberta to Nebraska. The pipeline would primarily transport crude oil from the WCSB and Bakken regions.

Climate Change 250

Climate Change Oil-Sands Nebraska Climate 250

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 14.0 than in AEO2012.

Fuel 225

Fuel Energy Sale 2013 225

Green Car Congress

MAY 27, 2009

World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030.

2006 150

2006 Emissions Energy Oil-Sands 150

Green Car Congress

APRIL 9, 2010

The Roadmap proposes completely transforming the US light-duty vehicle fleet into one in which grid-enabled mobility (grid-enabled vehicles, GEV) is the new conventional standard. By 2040, the report proposed, 75% of the light-duty vehicle miles traveled in the US should be electric miles. Oil Imports. Global Demand for Oil.

Grid 186

Grid Vehicles 2008 Oil 186

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 13, 2011

The transportation sector thus represents a significant fraction of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions both globally and in the US—light-duty vehicles (LDVs) are responsible for 17.5% Electrification will also reduce oil dependence, providing foreign policy benefits and the potential to reduce real oil prices and oil price volatility.

Transportation 252

Transportation MIT Oil Prices Oil 252

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 25, 2009

The focus of the work was on alternative jet fuels that could be available commercially in the next decade using primarily North American resources. Canadian oil sands and Venezuelan VHOs have the largest potential of several hundred thousand barrels per day of jet fuel, but their use would result in increased GHG emissions.

MIT 250

MIT Oil-Sands Commercial Available 250

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 28, 2011

The DOE-QTR defines six key strategies: increase vehicle efficiency; electrification of the light duty fleet; deploy alternative fuels; increase building and industrial efficiency; modernize the electrical grid; and deploy clean electricity. Vehicle efficiency has the greatest short- to mid-term impact on oil consumption.

Transportation 218

Transportation Fuel Economy Light Fuel 218

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

travelled (high, medium and low), and vehicle type (passenger, light commercial, or taxi). The analysis is based on central forecasts of oil price, electricity. price and carbon pollution reduction scheme (CPRS)/carbon tax policy, and known information about the historic drivers for consumers in the vehicle.

PHEV 210

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price 210

Green Car Congress

JULY 14, 2009

In two other scenarios considered, a high oil price scenario (using EIA projections) and a battery swap operator-subsidzied scenario, EV new vehicle sales penetration reaches 85% and 86% respectively by 2030. lower on a per-mile basis than gasoline-powered cars, depending on the future price of oil. Becker (2009).

Electric Cars 150

Electric Cars Batteries Battery Market 150

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 15, 2009

NRC projections of number of PHEVs in the US light-duty fleet. Costs of light-duty plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are high—largely due to their lithium-ion batteries—and unlikely to drastically decrease in the near future, according to a new report from the National Research Council (NRC). Click to enlarge.

Plug-in 186

Plug-in Plug PHEV Hybrid 186

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 27, 2011

produced more detailed analyses, but none combines the sectoral granularity, physical and resource constraints, and geographic scale needed for developing realistic technology and policy roadmaps. policies; long term rates of technology introduction were constrained by physical feasibility, resource availability, and historical uptake rates.

Climate 262

Climate California Fuel Gas-Electric 262

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2013

China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The US moves steadily towards meeting all of its energy needs from domestic resources by 2035. Oil use grows, but in a narrowing set of markets. Mobility and oil. Source: IEA. Click to enlarge.

Oil 275

Oil 2013 Energy Emissions 275

Green Car Congress

JUNE 7, 2017

A new study by researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder projects the emission impacts of the widespread introduction of inexpensive and efficient electric vehicles into the US light duty vehicle (LDV) sector. The work is reported in a paper in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology. —Keshavarzmohammadian et al.

Emissions 150

Emissions Economy Gasoline-Electric Coal 150

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

The abatement effect of enabling vehicle and fuel technologies was assessed with a comprehensive vehicle fleet and fuel model for EU-28, covering GHG emissions from passenger cars, light commercial vehicle and other commercial vehicles as well as indirect emissions from fuel and electricity production.

Transportation 150

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles 150

Green Car Congress

MARCH 19, 2012

Using government oil price projections, pure electric vans will still have a 10% cost of ownership premium over diesel in 2030. Ultra low emission vehicles in the light commercial vehicle market have strong potential in the medium-term, as rising fuel costs and falling battery and fuel cell costs cause ownership costs to converge.

Emissions 231

Emissions Manufacturer Market Price 231

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 7, 2009

Background colors of the cells represent the crude oil price required for economic feasibility. These synthetic fuels are economically competitive with petro-diesel when the crude oil price (COP) is at or above $86 per barrel (based on a 20% rate of return, in January 2008 dollars, with a carbon price of zero).

Carbon 186

Carbon Diesel Fuel Coal 186

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. Click to enlarge. billion in 2035.

Oil 247

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet 247

Green Car Congress

JUNE 12, 2015

The financial pages of Canadian newspapers have been full of headlines lately announcing the potential of two large shale oil fields in the Northwest Territories said to contain enough oil to rival the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana. billion barrels. enthused the Financial Post.

Oil-Sands 150

Oil-Sands Oil North Dakota Oil Prices 150

Green Car Congress

JUNE 16, 2009

As one example of factors contributing to that decision, a survey of projected oil prices returned values between $30 and $250 a barrel, he said.). California Air Resources Board. Dividing that forecast in to application segments—micro-, mild-, full-, and plug-in hybrids; mini-electric (e.g., Data: Tom Cackette, ARB.

Li-ion 150

Li-ion 2011 Market Hybrid 150

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 8, 2011

of sales through 2015 (assuming sales of 12 million light-duty vehicles per year, according to the report. The cumulative impacts of the various policy initiatives, the experience of the early purchasers of electric-drive vehicles and future oil prices will all play a role in determining future consumer demand.

2015 210

2015 Plug-in Tax Credit Plug 210

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 15, 2014

The results of a new, comprehensive modeling study characterizing light-duty electric drive vehicle (EDV) deployment in the US over 108 discrete scenarios do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x as EDV deployment increases. —Babaee et al.

Emissions 236

Emissions Oil Prices Vehicles Oil 236

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 14, 2009

Bubble chart of plausible mainstream PHEV buyers’ battery requirements (light and dark gray circles) and experts’s requirements overlaid on a Ragone plot of NiMH and Li-ion batteries. Let’s talk about water quality, local emissions, natural resources and the wars that come from places that don’t have enough natural resources.

PHEV 150

PHEV Fuel Economy San Diego Climate Change 150

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 1, 2014

Incremental well-to-wheels GHG emissions from WCSB Oil Sands Crudes Compared to Well-to-Wheels GHG Emissions from Displacing Reference Crudes Click to enlarge. Domestic production of crude oil has increased significantly, from approximately 5.5 million bpd in 2010 to 6.5 million bpd in 2012 and 7.5 million bpd by mid-2013. million bpd.

Oil-Sands 220

Oil-Sands Nebraska Oil Montana 220

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 18, 2010

The study examined eleven market segments: Passenger Vehicles by vehicle size (small, medium, large) and by distance travelled (low, medium and high vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT)); Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV); and Taxis. Economic Viability of Electric Vehicles. 2009, AECOM).

Australia 199

Australia Market Plug-in Plug 199

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 3, 2016

The production costs for most chemicals via microbial fermentation are currently high compared to oil-derived products primarily because of operating costs associated with feedstock and feedstock processing. The percentage of acetate labelled with 13 C is shown in light blue for each time point. Jones et al. Click to enlarge.

Conversion 240

Conversion Carbon CO2 Oil Prices 240

Green Car Congress

MAY 25, 2011

Biomass resources of the US, with the Northwest circled. Established hydroprocessing technologies to produce aviation fuels from natural oils. supply chains for sustainable aviation fuels utilizing oils from oilseed crops such as camelina, as well as algae and biomass. Source: SAFN report, via NREL. Click to enlarge.

Oil 230

Oil Industrial Industry Renewable 230

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 10, 2012

One of the many charts available from the maps and data library on the AFDC site, this shows the number of light-duty alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and diesel models offered by vehicle manufacturers from 1991 through 2012. Click to enlarge.

Transportation 388

Transportation Alternative Fuels Fleet Fuel Economy 388