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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. Click to enlarge. In DB’s Fall 2009 note, they had forecast 12% growth.

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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

Among the more detailed transportation projections in AEO2014 are: LDVs powered by gasoline remain the dominant vehicle type in the AEO2014 Reference case, retaining a 78% share of new LDV sales in 2040, down from their 82% share in 2012. LDV energy consumption declines in AEO2014 Reference case from 16.0 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 12.1

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Sales of battery-powered electric vehicles are 65% lower in the AEO2013 Reference case than the year before, with annual sales in 2035 estimated to be about 119,000. Click to enlarge. new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy.

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Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

Green Car Congress

As one example of factors contributing to that decision, a survey of projected oil prices returned values between $30 and $250 a barrel, he said.). Dividing that forecast in to application segments—micro-, mild-, full-, and plug-in hybrids; mini-electric (e.g., Representative battery pack size is below each segment.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. Shale gas offsets declines in other US supply to meet. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

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Toyota digs for Lithium

Revenge of the Electric Car

From the Reuters post: “A sister company to Toyota Motor Corp secured a lithium supply deal in Argentina on Wednesday that could help the world’s largest automaker keep its lead in gasoline-electric hybrid cars. For more information read: Toyota in Argentine Lithium Deal for Hybrid Car Push. By Eriko Amaha for Reuters.

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NYT Editorial

Plug In Partners

The price for what could be China's first foray into America's overheated love affair with cars: around $10,000. The reality is that all the job cuts in the world won't help if Ford, and General Motors, for that matter, continue to shy away from offering more Americans many more cars that can run on fuels other than gasoline.