Alternative Fuels, Oil Prices, Resource and Transportation

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 29, 2014

Well-to-Propeller GHG emissions results for marine alternative fuels. DNV GL has released a position paper on the future alternative fuel mix for global shipping. The global merchant fleet currently consumes around 330 million tonnes of fuel annually, 80-85 per cent of which is residual fuel with high sulfur content.

Alternative Fuels

Alternative Fuels Fuel Gas-Electric Mariner

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

A new study by consultancy Roland Berger defines an integrated roadmap for European road transport decarbonization to 2030 and beyond; the current regulatory framework for vehicle emissions, carbon intensity of fuels and use of renewable fuels covers only up to 2020/2021. GHG abatement in road transport sector will cost approx.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

Green Car Congress

APRIL 12, 2012

Transport GHG emissions in the “No New Policies” case (NNP) and the “Lowest” case (L). As deeper cuts are likely to be made in other sectors, this requires a cut of at least 60% in transportation GHG emissions, most notably CO 2 , by midcentury. The horizontal lines indicate 60% reduction from year-1990 levels. Credit: ACS, Dray et al.

Transportation

Transportation Europe Climate Change Emissions

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 28, 2011

The DOE-QTR defines six key strategies: increase vehicle efficiency; electrification of the light duty fleet; deploy alternative fuels; increase building and industrial efficiency; modernize the electrical grid; and deploy clean electricity. DOE’s most significant role in transport research is here. —QTR.

Transportation

Transportation Fuel Economy Light Fuel

Sandia study finds meeting RFS2 requirements unlikely without stronger enforcement mechanism; the importance of drop-in biofuels

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 6, 2014

Among their findings were: RFS2 is satisfied at extreme oil prices (at least $215/barrel). This oil price encourages biofuel use in the RFS2 timeframe, but not in the long run. The simulation evolves the LDV parc, stepping through 2050, although most of the analysis in the paper focuses on simulations through 2022.

Oil Prices

Oil Prices Gasoline-Electric Gasoline Oil

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

Green Car Congress

JULY 2, 2013

In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Historical scenario. (A) Click to enlarge.

Oil

Oil Oil-Sands Fuel Economy Transportation

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

Green Car Congress

JUNE 20, 2012

From a cost perspective, the potential of alternative fuels is of limited, if any value, according to the lead report written by James Bartis, a RAND senior policy researcher. In response to these high prices, demand will moderate as petroleum consumers look for transportation options that are more energy efficient.

Price

Price Oil-Sands Turkey Fuel

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. The AEO2013 reference case projects delivered energy consumption in the transportation sector to remain relatively constant at about 27 quadrillion Btu from 2011 to 2040. Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. Click to enlarge. than in AEO2012.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 25, 2009

The focus of the work was on alternative jet fuels that could be available commercially in the next decade using primarily North American resources. Production of commercial quantities of HRJ depends on the availability of appropriate feedstocks at competitive prices. million bpd. billion and $8.3

MIT

MIT Oil-Sands Commercial Available

Perspective: Ending Oils Monopolya Blueprint for Mobility Choice

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2009

Perspective by Deron Lovaas, Federal Transportation Policy Director, Natural Resources Defense Council. Oil is a strategic commodity second to none—it underlies the global economy and even the American way of life. This means our economic stability is at stake because of our reliance on oil. Source: EIA.

Oil

Oil Transportation Congress Fuel Economy

ICCT suggests minor changes to Fed tax policy to cut higher investment risk of 2nd-gen biofuels and advance the industry

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 22, 2013

biofuel made from cellulose, algae, duckweed, or cyanobacteria) could mitigate the current elevated risk of investing in the industry that is retarding its advance, according to a new paper by a team from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and Johns Hopkins University. RFS and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

Tax

Tax Tax Credit Industrial Industry

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 3, 2010

The California LCFS calls for at least a 10% reduction from 2006 levels in the carbon intensity (measured in gCO 2 e/MJ) of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. By regulating the fuel pathway of transportation fuels—i.e., Earlier post.). NPRA President Charles T.

California

California Oil-Sands Oil 2005

Univ of Washington team working to make poplar coppice viable cheap, high-volume biofuel feedstock

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 17, 2017

Alternative fuels must make economic sense, the researchers stress, for biofuels to make a dent in the petroleum-driven market. We have the environmental incentives to produce fuels and chemicals from renewable resources, but right now, they aren’t enough to compete with low oil prices. Click to enlarge.

Washington

Washington Cheap Oil Universal

NREL launches new alternative transportation web tools; planning, maps, data

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 10, 2012

One of the many charts available from the maps and data library on the AFDC site, this shows the number of light-duty alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and diesel models offered by vehicle manufacturers from 1991 through 2012. Click to enlarge.

Transportation

Transportation Alternative Fuels Fleet Fuel Economy

Mixed Outlook for Mainstream Consumer Adoption of PHEVs

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 14, 2009

Dr. Ken Kurani from the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS) presented results from the latest in a series of electric drive consumer studies seeking to learn from consumers whether or not PHEVs are a good idea. Our history with alternative fuels has been truly awful.” Tax the fuel.” Steve Plotkin.

PHEV

PHEV Fuel Economy San Diego Climate Change

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 13, 2011

Under the WEO 2011 central scenario, oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035, with all the net growth coming from the transport sector in emerging economies. By contrast, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010. World PLDV oil demand in the New Policies Scenario.

Oil

Oil Transportation Cheap Fleet

Iveco step up production of biomethane-powered vehicle

Green Cars News

APRIL 27, 2009

Richard Lilleystone, Chief Executive Officer at Gasrec, added: “The gas we use to make the LBM for this vehicle comes from a landfill site in Albury, Surrey, which means it is not depleting fossil resources. LBM is a commercially competitive and environmentally sound fuel that can be directly substituted for natural gas.

Power

Power Powered Production Vehicles

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

Green Car Congress

JULY 19, 2012

Building on LCFS policies already adopted in Europe, British Columbia, and California, the researchers looked at potential costs and benefits of reducing the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 10 to 15 percent by 2030. Regulate fuels according to their life-cycle GHG emissions. Harness market forces using LCFS credits.

Carbon

Carbon Oil-Sands Standards Design

EV Driven

DNV GL paper suggests near-term success for LNG in shipping; alternative fuel mix to diversify over time

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Study concludes significant additional transport policy interventions will be required for Europe to meet its GHG reduction goal

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

Sandia study finds meeting RFS2 requirements unlikely without stronger enforcement mechanism; the importance of drop-in biofuels

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

Perspective: Ending Oils Monopolya Blueprint for Mobility Choice

ICCT suggests minor changes to Fed tax policy to cut higher investment risk of 2nd-gen biofuels and advance the industry

Refiners and Truckers Associations Challenge California LCFS in Federal Court

Univ of Washington team working to make poplar coppice viable cheap, high-volume biofuel feedstock

NREL launches new alternative transportation web tools; planning, maps, data

Mixed Outlook for Mainstream Consumer Adoption of PHEVs

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Iveco step up production of biomethane-powered vehicle

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

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