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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. With greater U.S.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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quadrillion Btu in 2025, due to incorporation of the model year 2017 to 2025 GHG and CAFE standards for LDVs. Growth in diesel fuel consumption will be moderated by the increased use of natural gas in heavy-duty vehicles. The United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas earlier than estimated a year ago. than in AEO2012.

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IEA: Global CO2 emissions up by 1.0 Gt (3.2%) in 2011 to record high

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Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%). Gt no later than 2017, i.e. just 1.0 However, China’s carbon intensity—the amount of CO 2 emitted per unit of GDP—fell by 15% between 2005 and 2011. Gt above 2011 levels. Gt, the IEA said.

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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards and CAFE standards increase new LDV fuel economy through model year 2025 and beyond, with more fuel-efficient new vehicles gradually replacing older vehicles on the road and raising the fuel efficiency of the LDV stock by an average of 2.0% per year, from 21.5 l/100 km) in 2012 to 37.2

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EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

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EIA’s AEO2012 projects a continued decline in US imports of liquid fuels due to increased production of gas liquids and biofuels and greater fuel efficiency. EIA added a premium to the capital cost of CO 2 -intensive technologies to reflect current market behavior regarding possible future policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

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EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

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Source: EIA and Argus Media group, China Methanol to Energy Study , January 2017. About two-thirds of China’s methanol feedstock is produced from coal and the remainder from coking gas (a by-product of steel production) and natural gas. MTG units involve high capital costs and are only cost-competitive when oil prices are high.

2000 150
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NETL Report Concludes CTL Plus Carbon Capture Results in Fuel with 5-12% Less Lifecycle GHG Than Petroleum Diesel; Modest Biomass Additions Lower GHG Further

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Lifecycle GHG emissions of CTL/CBTL/BTL compared to 2005 petroleum diesel baseline. Background colors of the cells represent the crude oil price required for economic feasibility. greater than petroleum-derived diesel fuel, using fuel produced in the year 2017 as a basis of comparison. Tarka et al. Earlier post.).

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