Alternative Fuels, Forecast, PHEV and Plug-in

Navigant forecasts plug-in and fuel cell vehicles to be 2.5% of all vehicles in use in 2035; global parc of >2B vehicles

Green Car Congress

MAY 20, 2014

The company forecasts that annual LDV sales will grow to 126.9 over the forecast period—i.e., over the forecast period—i.e., Additionally, regional fuel costs and refueling infrastructure availability play a major role in consumer acceptance of alternative fuels regardless of government backing.

Plug-in

Plug-in Global Plug Vehicles

Navigant Research forecasts plug-ins will be 2.4% of global new vehicle sales by 2023; luxury brands to represent about 50% of that

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 23, 2014

Navigant Research forecasts that plug-in EVs (which include plug-in hybrids and battery EVs), will represent 2.4% Accordingly, Navigant expects this luxury brand push to increase global sales of plug-in EVs significantly in the near term. —“Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”. million units.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug Global Sale

Navigant forecasts MHD vehicle market to nearly double by 2035 with declining share of conventional engines; gases win out over electricity

Green Car Congress

JULY 7, 2014

The number of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) in use worldwide will nearly double between 2014 and 2035, according to a new forecast report by Navigant Research. Navigant projects that annual MHDV sales will grow throughout the forecast period at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4%. of the market in 2014 to 11.2%

Market

Market Alternative Fuels Engine Gas-Electric

Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015

Green Car Congress

JULY 6, 2015

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts global annual sales of light duty vehicles will reach 122.6 Navigant expects sales of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will fall significantly over the forecast period, experiencing a CAGR of -6.6%. Vehicles fueled exclusively by electricity will represent 1.3%

2015

2015 Global Sale PHEV

Navigant forecasts US military spending on non-tactical alt drive vehicles to more than double to $926M by 2020 from 2013; 11.4% CAGR

Green Car Congress

JULY 5, 2013

In a new report , Navigant Research forecasts that US military spending on alternative drive vehicles (ADVs—including hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), and ethanol-powered vehicles—for the non-tactical fleet will increase from more than $435 million in 2013 to $926 million by 2020, a CAGR of 11.4%.

2013

2013 2020 Alternative Fuels Vehicles

Navigant: sales of light duty vehicles to total more than 2.1 billion from 2015 to 2035

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 10, 2015

Navigant forecasts global annual LDV sales to grow from 88.8 Navigant expects the vast majority of growth in the LDV market over the forecast period to come from developing countries in Asia Pacific, specifically China and India. According to a recent report from Navigant Research, total sales of LDVs are expected to total more than 2.1

2015

2015 Light Sale PHEV

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles. Increased sales for hybrids and PHEVs. quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 14.0

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

EIA projects decline in transportation sector energy consumption through 2037 despite increase in VMT, followed by increase

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 28, 2019

For the Transportation sector, EIA projects that energy consumption will decline between 2019 and 2037 (in the Reference case) because increases in fuel economy more than offset growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). This growth arises from increases in air transportation outpacing increases in aircraft fuel efficiency.

Transportation

Transportation Energy Fuel Economy 2018

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

Optimized internal combustion engines are the major contributor to the reduction of passenger car GHG emissions with significant improvements until 2020 and the subsequent penetration of more effective alternative technologies into the fleet. PHEVs fueled with advanced biofuels and low carbon, renewable electricity (for PC).

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

Report finds that total transportation energy demand in California in 2050 could be reduced 30% relative to 2005

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 23, 2011

Total transportation fuel use in California broken down by subsector and fuel type for each scenario: business-as-usual (BAU); plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs); and combined PEVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Source: Yang et al. Click to enlarge. —Yang et al.

2005

2005 Transportation California Energy

NRC report concludes US LDVs could cut oil consumption and GHGs by 80% by 2050; reliance on plug-ins, biofuels and hydrogen; strong policies mandatory

Green Car Congress

MARCH 18, 2013

Projected rates of fuel consumption improvement under different scenarios relative to past experience and the 2016 and 2025 CAFE standards. In addition, alternative fuels to petroleum must be readily available, cost-effective and produced with low emissions of greenhouse gases. Source: NRC. Click to enlarge. —Douglas M.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen Oil Plug-in Fuel Economy

DOE seeking input on analysis methodology and assumption for estimating total cost of ownership of future advanced vehicle technologies

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 19, 2011

suppliers of batteries, fuel cells, motors, power electronics, etc.); fuels suppliers; electric utilities; independent power producers; industrial gas companies; state and local government; research laboratories; academics; and other public, private, or non-profit entities. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

Cost Of

Cost Of Future Fuel Economy Vehicles

Major study concludes achieving EU 2050 transport decarbonization goals will require portfolio of advanced powertrains; fuel cells, battery-electric and plug-in hybrids

Green Car Congress

NOVEMBER 19, 2010

The study focused on a portfolio of powertrains: BEVs, FCEVs, PHEVs and ICEs, taking into account significant advances in ICE technology between now and 2020. Click to enlarge. With the number of passenger cars set to rise to 273 million in Europe—and to 2.5 Medium- or heavy-duty vehicles were not included.

Plug-in

Plug-in PHEV Transportation Plug

MIT study: higher octane standard fuel in US could lower fleet fuel consumption & GHG an extra 4.5-6% by 2040

Green Car Congress

APRIL 24, 2014

to 6% reduction in fleet fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, on top of a projected 26.8% without higher octane fuel, but with other projected vehicle and powertrain technology improvements), according to a new analysis by a team at MIT. reduction by then in the baseline case (i.e.,

MIT

MIT Fleet Fuel Standards

MIT Energy Initiative report on transforming the US transportation system by 2050 to address climate challenges

Green Car Congress

MARCH 16, 2016

There are many options available for reducing the fuel, energy, and GHG emissions impacts of LDVs. Achieving our overall goal—reducing fleet fuel and energy consumption and GHGs by three-quarters or more—will be extremely challenging.

MIT

MIT Transportation Climate Energy

EV Driven

Navigant forecasts plug-in and fuel cell vehicles to be 2.5% of all vehicles in use in 2035; global parc of >2B vehicles

Navigant Research forecasts plug-ins will be 2.4% of global new vehicle sales by 2023; luxury brands to represent about 50% of that

Navigant forecasts MHD vehicle market to nearly double by 2035 with declining share of conventional engines; gases win out over electricity

Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015

Navigant forecasts US military spending on non-tactical alt drive vehicles to more than double to $926M by 2020 from 2013; 11.4% CAGR

Navigant: sales of light duty vehicles to total more than 2.1 billion from 2015 to 2035

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

EIA projects decline in transportation sector energy consumption through 2037 despite increase in VMT, followed by increase

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Report finds that total transportation energy demand in California in 2050 could be reduced 30% relative to 2005

NRC report concludes US LDVs could cut oil consumption and GHGs by 80% by 2050; reliance on plug-ins, biofuels and hydrogen; strong policies mandatory

DOE seeking input on analysis methodology and assumption for estimating total cost of ownership of future advanced vehicle technologies

Major study concludes achieving EU 2050 transport decarbonization goals will require portfolio of advanced powertrains; fuel cells, battery-electric and plug-in hybrids

MIT study: higher octane standard fuel in US could lower fleet fuel consumption & GHG an extra 4.5-6% by 2040

MIT Energy Initiative report on transforming the US transportation system by 2050 to address climate challenges

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