Alternative Fuels, Forecast, Gasoline and Plug-in

Navigant forecasts plug-in and fuel cell vehicles to be 2.5% of all vehicles in use in 2035; global parc of >2B vehicles

Green Car Congress

MAY 20, 2014

The company forecasts that annual LDV sales will grow to 126.9 over the forecast period—i.e., over the forecast period—i.e., Additionally, regional fuel costs and refueling infrastructure availability play a major role in consumer acceptance of alternative fuels regardless of government backing.

Plug-in

Plug-in Global Plug Vehicles

Navigant forecasts MHD vehicle market to nearly double by 2035 with declining share of conventional engines; gases win out over electricity

Green Car Congress

JULY 7, 2014

The number of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) in use worldwide will nearly double between 2014 and 2035, according to a new forecast report by Navigant Research. Navigant projects that annual MHDV sales will grow throughout the forecast period at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4%. of the market in 2014 to 11.2%

Market

Market Alternative Fuels Engine Gas-Electric

Navigant Research: sales of plug-in electric buses increased 40% from 2016 to 2017

Green Car Congress

OCTOBER 17, 2017

According to a new report from Navigant Research, sales for plug-in electric buses increased 40% from 2016 to 2017, as the technology on offer from bus companies has improved in performance and in price. The difference is made up by the stronger sales growth expected in all alternative fuel buses.

2017

2017 Plug-in 2016 Plug

Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015

Green Car Congress

JULY 6, 2015

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts global annual sales of light duty vehicles will reach 122.6 Navigant expects sales of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will fall significantly over the forecast period, experiencing a CAGR of -6.6%. Vehicles fueled exclusively by electricity will represent 1.3%

2015

2015 Global Sale PHEV

Navigant forecasts US military spending on non-tactical alt drive vehicles to more than double to $926M by 2020 from 2013; 11.4% CAGR

Green Car Congress

JULY 5, 2013

In a new report , Navigant Research forecasts that US military spending on alternative drive vehicles (ADVs—including hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), and ethanol-powered vehicles—for the non-tactical fleet will increase from more than $435 million in 2013 to $926 million by 2020, a CAGR of 11.4%.

2013

2013 2020 Alternative Fuels Vehicles

Moody’s Japan says push for electrified vehicles poses credit challenges for key Japanese sectors

Green Car Congress

APRIL 9, 2018

says that the push toward alternative-fuel vehicles—battery electric vehicles, hybrids, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles—poses a credit challenge for multiple sectors in Japan, with the large auto sector and sectors such as steel and refining most affected. Moody’s Japan K.K.

Japan

Japan Alternative Fuels Vehicles Carbon Fiber

Navigant: sales of light duty vehicles to total more than 2.1 billion from 2015 to 2035

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 10, 2015

Navigant forecasts global annual LDV sales to grow from 88.8 Navigant expects the vast majority of growth in the LDV market over the forecast period to come from developing countries in Asia Pacific, specifically China and India. According to a recent report from Navigant Research, total sales of LDVs are expected to total more than 2.1

2015

2015 Light Sale PHEV

California Energy Roadmap Targets Outlines Activities to Support Electrified Transportation; Sufficient Charging Stations to Support 1M Plug-ins by 2020

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 22, 2010

It also looks at strategic and infrastructure opportunities that will accommodate the expected influx of plug-in hybrid and all-electric cars, and investment in research and development for new technologies related to generation and distribution. Alternative Fuel-Vehicle Rulemaking.

Plug-in

Plug-in California 2020 Transportation

ICF report finds California Low Carbon Fuel Standard can be achieved with modest changes in diversity of fuels

Green Car Congress

JUNE 13, 2013

Each colored stacked bar represents credits generated via low carbon fuels; the red line represents the deficits from forecasted CARBOB and ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) consumption. The LCFS requires a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity (in gCO 2 e/MJ) of transportation fuels by 2020, as measured on a lifecycle basis.

California

California Carbon Fuel Standards

UC Davis report finds LCFS compliance costs may rise rapidly; recommends offsetting measures

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 30, 2013

Both proposals have the additional advantage of generating funds which may be used to increase investments in low CI fuel technologies. The LCFS program calls for a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity of fuel sold in California over the next decade. Both options will be associated with high LCFS credit prices.

Davis

Davis Alternative Fuels Boston Consulting Group Price

California ARB 2013 research project to characterize ZEV market; assessing future market potential

Green Car Congress

MAY 18, 2013

ARB notes that while the California Energy Commission has conducted several studies in the past on consumer response to alternatively fueled vehicles and incentives, these have relied on stated preference responses to hypothetical future vehicles. price, vehicle range, infrastructure). —ARB FY2013-2014 Research Plan.

2013

2013 Market California Future

EIA projects decline in transportation sector energy consumption through 2037 despite increase in VMT, followed by increase

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 28, 2019

For the Transportation sector, EIA projects that energy consumption will decline between 2019 and 2037 (in the Reference case) because increases in fuel economy more than offset growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). This growth arises from increases in air transportation outpacing increases in aircraft fuel efficiency.

Transportation

Transportation Energy Fuel Economy 2018

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles. Click to enlarge.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

NRC report concludes US LDVs could cut oil consumption and GHGs by 80% by 2050; reliance on plug-ins, biofuels and hydrogen; strong policies mandatory

Green Car Congress

MARCH 18, 2013

Projected rates of fuel consumption improvement under different scenarios relative to past experience and the 2016 and 2025 CAFE standards. In addition, alternative fuels to petroleum must be readily available, cost-effective and produced with low emissions of greenhouse gases. Source: NRC. Click to enlarge. —Douglas M.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen Oil Plug-in Fuel Economy

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

Optimized internal combustion engines are the major contributor to the reduction of passenger car GHG emissions with significant improvements until 2020 and the subsequent penetration of more effective alternative technologies into the fleet. GHG abatement in road transport sector will cost approx.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

Report finds that total transportation energy demand in California in 2050 could be reduced 30% relative to 2005

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 23, 2011

Total transportation fuel use in California broken down by subsector and fuel type for each scenario: business-as-usual (BAU); plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs); and combined PEVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Source: Yang et al. Click to enlarge. —Yang et al.

2005

2005 Transportation California Energy

Perspective: Europeans in the lead with range extenders for hybrid vehicles; 2nd vs. 3rd generation

Green Car Congress

MAY 24, 2011

For example, the new IDTechEx report, “Electric Buses and Taxis 2011-2021” forecasts more than 91,000 hybrid electric buses being made in 2021. Equivalent forecasts for hybrid cars can be found in the IDTechEx report, “Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2011-2021” Here come range extenders. Largest sector by value.

Hybrid

Hybrid Range Vehicles San Jose

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. —EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski.

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

DOE TEF project finds US can eliminate petroleum and reduce GHG by more than 80% in transportation by 2050; less use, more biofuels, expansion of electricity and hydrogen

Green Car Congress

MARCH 15, 2013

TEF project points to deep cuts in petroleum and emissions in the transportation sector by focusing on modes, fuels, and demand. TEF is organized into four research areas: light-duty vehicles; non-light-duty vehicles; fuels; and transportation demand. Using less fuel in vehicles. Source: DOE. Click to enlarge. Source: DOE.

Transportation

Transportation Hydrogen Fuel Light

OECD paper presents and analyzes policies and programs to foster market growth of green cars

Green Car Congress

SEPTEMBER 24, 2012

Green cars” can be defined as vehicles that use alternative fuels (other than petrol or diesel) and/or alternative types of propulsion (other than the conventional ICE). Alternative fuels include biofuels, natural gas, hydrogen and electricity from the grid. Timing and sequencing of energy technology policy.

Green Cars

Green Cars Green Market Green Vehicles

MIT study: higher octane standard fuel in US could lower fleet fuel consumption & GHG an extra 4.5-6% by 2040

Green Car Congress

APRIL 24, 2014

Offering a higher-octane gasoline to the consumer market in the US as the standard grade could deliver an incremental 4.5% to 6% reduction in fleet fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, on top of a projected 26.8% In other words, they proposed making the current premium fuel the new standard grade.

MIT

MIT Fleet Fuel Standards

MIT Energy Initiative report on transforming the US transportation system by 2050 to address climate challenges

Green Car Congress

MARCH 16, 2016

There are many options available for reducing the fuel, energy, and GHG emissions impacts of LDVs. Achieving our overall goal—reducing fleet fuel and energy consumption and GHGs by three-quarters or more—will be extremely challenging.

MIT

MIT Transportation Climate Energy

Overflow crowd at DC plug-in conference

Plugs and Cars

JUNE 13, 2008

News of oil by the barrel and gas by the gallon reaching new highs had been dominating TV and print, so it was perhaps not surprising that the Google/Brookings Plug-in Electric Vehicle Conference saw overflow crowds. Many of the speeches sounded notes long trumpeted by advocates at Plug In America and the Electric Auto Association.

Plug-in

Plug-in Plug DC Grid

EV Driven

Navigant forecasts plug-in and fuel cell vehicles to be 2.5% of all vehicles in use in 2035; global parc of >2B vehicles

Navigant forecasts MHD vehicle market to nearly double by 2035 with declining share of conventional engines; gases win out over electricity

Navigant Research: sales of plug-in electric buses increased 40% from 2016 to 2017

Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015

Navigant forecasts US military spending on non-tactical alt drive vehicles to more than double to $926M by 2020 from 2013; 11.4% CAGR

Moody’s Japan says push for electrified vehicles poses credit challenges for key Japanese sectors

Navigant: sales of light duty vehicles to total more than 2.1 billion from 2015 to 2035

California Energy Roadmap Targets Outlines Activities to Support Electrified Transportation; Sufficient Charging Stations to Support 1M Plug-ins by 2020

ICF report finds California Low Carbon Fuel Standard can be achieved with modest changes in diversity of fuels

UC Davis report finds LCFS compliance costs may rise rapidly; recommends offsetting measures

California ARB 2013 research project to characterize ZEV market; assessing future market potential

EIA projects decline in transportation sector energy consumption through 2037 despite increase in VMT, followed by increase

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

NRC report concludes US LDVs could cut oil consumption and GHGs by 80% by 2050; reliance on plug-ins, biofuels and hydrogen; strong policies mandatory

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Report finds that total transportation energy demand in California in 2050 could be reduced 30% relative to 2005

Perspective: Europeans in the lead with range extenders for hybrid vehicles; 2nd vs. 3rd generation

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

DOE TEF project finds US can eliminate petroleum and reduce GHG by more than 80% in transportation by 2050; less use, more biofuels, expansion of electricity and hydrogen

OECD paper presents and analyzes policies and programs to foster market growth of green cars

MIT study: higher octane standard fuel in US could lower fleet fuel consumption & GHG an extra 4.5-6% by 2040

MIT Energy Initiative report on transforming the US transportation system by 2050 to address climate challenges

Overflow crowd at DC plug-in conference

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