Alternative Fuels, Forecast, Gasoline-Electric and PHEV

Navigant forecasts MHD vehicle market to nearly double by 2035 with declining share of conventional engines; gases win out over electricity

Green Car Congress

JULY 7, 2014

The number of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) in use worldwide will nearly double between 2014 and 2035, according to a new forecast report by Navigant Research. Navigant projects that annual MHDV sales will grow throughout the forecast period at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4%. of the market in 2014 to 11.2%

Market

Market Alternative Fuels Engine Gas-Electric

Navigant forecasts plug-in and fuel cell vehicles to be 2.5% of all vehicles in use in 2035; global parc of >2B vehicles

Green Car Congress

MAY 20, 2014

The company forecasts that annual LDV sales will grow to 126.9 over the forecast period—i.e., Hybrid-electric and natural-gas (HEVs and NGVs) will account for almost 8% of global share, while plug-in hybrid (PHEV), battery-electric (BEV), and fuel-cell electric (FCV) together will add up to almost 2.5%

Plug-in

Plug-in Global Plug Vehicles

Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015

Green Car Congress

JULY 6, 2015

In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts global annual sales of light duty vehicles will reach 122.6 Navigant expects sales of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will fall significantly over the forecast period, experiencing a CAGR of -6.6%. Vehicles fueled exclusively by electricity will represent 1.3%

2015

2015 Global Sale PHEV

Navigant forecasts US military spending on non-tactical alt drive vehicles to more than double to $926M by 2020 from 2013; 11.4% CAGR

Green Car Congress

JULY 5, 2013

Non-tactical vehicle spending by alternative drive type, US Department of Defense: 2013-2020. Navigant forecasts that annual fuel consumption in the non-tactical fleet will decrease by a 2.5% Fossil fuel consumption varies by use in times of combat operations and peace. Source: Navigant Research. Click to enlarge.

2013

2013 2020 Alternative Fuels Vehicles

Navigant: sales of light duty vehicles to total more than 2.1 billion from 2015 to 2035

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 10, 2015

Navigant forecasts global annual LDV sales to grow from 88.8 Navigant expects the vast majority of growth in the LDV market over the forecast period to come from developing countries in Asia Pacific, specifically China and India. According to a recent report from Navigant Research, total sales of LDVs are expected to total more than 2.1

2015

2015 Light Sale PHEV

EIA projects decline in transportation sector energy consumption through 2037 despite increase in VMT, followed by increase

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 28, 2019

EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2019 projects continued robust growth in US energy production, emergence of the United States as an energy exporter, and a cleaner S electric power generation mix. This growth arises from increases in air transportation outpacing increases in aircraft fuel efficiency.

Transportation

Transportation Energy Fuel Economy 2018

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Increased sales for hybrids and PHEVs. Projected sales of alternative-fuel vehicles in the AEO2013 Reference case are lower than in AEO2012, with the majority of the reduction reflected in sales of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs), which in 2035 are about 1.3

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

Even until 2030 many alternative powertrain technologies such as PHEV, BEV and FCV lack relative cost competitiveness—but are important cornerstones in vehicle manufacturers’ CO 2 emission compliance strategies. PHEVs fueled with advanced biofuels and low carbon, renewable electricity (for PC).

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

Report finds that total transportation energy demand in California in 2050 could be reduced 30% relative to 2005

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 23, 2011

Total transportation fuel use in California broken down by subsector and fuel type for each scenario: business-as-usual (BAU); plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs); and combined PEVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Source: Yang et al. Click to enlarge. —Yang et al.

2005

2005 Transportation California Energy

NRC report concludes US LDVs could cut oil consumption and GHGs by 80% by 2050; reliance on plug-ins, biofuels and hydrogen; strong policies mandatory

Green Car Congress

MARCH 18, 2013

Achieving those goals will will be difficult—but not impossible to meet—and will necessitate a combination of more efficient vehicles; the use of alternative fuels such as biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen; and strong government policies to overcome high costs and influence consumer choices.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen Oil Plug-in Fuel Economy

Is A Tax On Electricity (kWh) Consumed The Best Way to Supplement the Fuel Tax for Electric Vehicles?

EV Adoption

JULY 4, 2022

As sales of electric vehicles begin to reach significant numbers across the US, states are exploring approaches to replace lost tax revenue since EV drivers don’t pay fuel taxes as drivers of gas-powered cars do at gas stations. Unfortunately there is currently no simple and agreed upon best replacement for the fuel tax.

Fuel Tax

Fuel Tax Tax Electric Vehicles Fuel

MIT Energy Initiative report on transforming the US transportation system by 2050 to address climate challenges

Green Car Congress

MARCH 16, 2016

The report addresses topics related to the evolution of vehicle technology and its deployment, the development of alternative fuels and energy sources, the impacts of driver behavior, and the implications of all of these factors on future GHG emissions in the United States, Europe, China, and Japan.

MIT

MIT Transportation Climate Energy

EV Driven

Navigant forecasts MHD vehicle market to nearly double by 2035 with declining share of conventional engines; gases win out over electricity

Navigant forecasts plug-in and fuel cell vehicles to be 2.5% of all vehicles in use in 2035; global parc of >2B vehicles

Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015

Navigant forecasts US military spending on non-tactical alt drive vehicles to more than double to $926M by 2020 from 2013; 11.4% CAGR

Navigant: sales of light duty vehicles to total more than 2.1 billion from 2015 to 2035

EIA projects decline in transportation sector energy consumption through 2037 despite increase in VMT, followed by increase

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Report finds that total transportation energy demand in California in 2050 could be reduced 30% relative to 2005

NRC report concludes US LDVs could cut oil consumption and GHGs by 80% by 2050; reliance on plug-ins, biofuels and hydrogen; strong policies mandatory

Is A Tax On Electricity (kWh) Consumed The Best Way to Supplement the Fuel Tax for Electric Vehicles?

MIT Energy Initiative report on transforming the US transportation system by 2050 to address climate challenges

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