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BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

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The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 on 30 June to $61.60

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EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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However, fossil fuels continue to supply nearly 80% of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane increase. per year over the projection period, but remain a relatively minor share of total liquids supply through 2040.

2010 317
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EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

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The main effect of this change on the forecasted STEO liquid fuels market balances is that the higher consumption in 2014 raises the baseline to which the STEO forecast benchmarks. Most of China’s methanol supply is from domestic production. MTG units involve high capital costs and are only cost-competitive when oil prices are high.

2000 150
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IEA: global map of oil refining and trade to be redrawn over next 5 years

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Profound shifts in the regional distribution of oil demand and supply growth will redefine the refining industry and transform global oil trade over the next five years, according to the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Oil 255
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The $32-Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry

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And it has become clear that not only oil and gas giants are being targeted, after one of the world’s largest mining and commodity trading companies, Glencore, decided to put a limit on its thermal coal investment. The latter is partly caused by “global warming constraints” and lower oil prices in general.

Oil 231
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Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

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It uses linear programming to estimate energy supply shifts over a multi-decadal timeframe, finding the least-cost means to supply specified demands for energy services subject to user-defined constraints, assuming a fully competitive market.

Emissions 150
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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020 150