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Lux Research: despite cheap oil, niche plug-in vehicle sales will be resilient; conventional hybrids to be hardest hit

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The current plunge in oil prices will likely negatively affect plug-in and hybrid vehicle sales in the short term; automakers such as BMW are already warning of lower sales of plug-in vehicles given the market context. Anticipated price of oil and forecast plug-in sales. Lux on the price of oil.

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Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

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In 2011, the largest dollar volume for Li-ion automotive applications could come from the mini EV and EREV segment. Representative battery pack size is below each segment. As one example of factors contributing to that decision, a survey of projected oil prices returned values between $30 and $250 a barrel, he said.).

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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DB has lowered its advanced lithium-ion battery cost projection by about 30% for 2012. ” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Among its many findings, the Reference case suggests that US primary energy consumption will grow by 7% from 2011 to 2040 to 108 quadrillion Btu. However, energy use per capita declines by 15% from 2011 through 2040 as a result of improving energy efficiency (e.g.,

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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. Shale gas offsets declines in other US supply to meet. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

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Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020, falling to below 2010 levels by 2035

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Global demand for oil may well peak before 2020, falling back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035, according to a multi-client research study conducted by Ricardo Strategic Consulting launched in June 2011 in association with Kevin J. Diesel and gasoline demand disparity. Lindemer LLC.

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AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

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According to a recently published report commissioned by the Victoria (Australia) Department of Transport from AECOM, electric vehicle (EV) technology offers the state of Victoria potentially significant economic benefits by the late 2020s. electricity supply to provide the necessary protections from higher voltages. Source: AECOM.

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