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Today’s Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

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As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. In a speech made at the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators’ 2017 International Petroleum Summit, Johnston laid out his concerns for the future of oil.

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IEA: global energy efficiency progress drops to slowest rate since start of decade

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Energy efficiency has tremendous potential to boost economic growth and avoid greenhouse gas emissions, but the global rate of progress is slowing, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency. improvement in 2017 and marked the third year in a row the rate has declined. Global primary energy demand rose by 2.3%

Global 150
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IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO ’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035.

Global 225
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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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quadrillion Btu in 2025, due to incorporation of the model year 2017 to 2025 GHG and CAFE standards for LDVs. Sales of battery-powered electric vehicles are 65% lower in the AEO2013 Reference case than the year before, with annual sales in 2035 estimated to be about 119,000. quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 14.0 Overall findings.

Fuel 225
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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards and CAFE standards increase new LDV fuel economy through model year 2025 and beyond, with more fuel-efficient new vehicles gradually replacing older vehicles on the road and raising the fuel efficiency of the LDV stock by an average of 2.0% per year, from 21.5 l/100 km) in 2012 to 37.2

Oil 290
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EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

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EIA’s AEO2012 projects a continued decline in US imports of liquid fuels due to increased production of gas liquids and biofuels and greater fuel efficiency. EIA added a premium to the capital cost of CO 2 -intensive technologies to reflect current market behavior regarding possible future policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Oil 210