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Opinion: Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Oil Prices

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Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. But along with all of the excess crude flowing from the oil patch, there is also an abundance of market indicators that while important, tend to produce a lot of noise that makes any accurate estimate nearly impossible.

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Pike forecasts Asia-Pacific to be largest PEV market, with more than 1.2M units by 2015; China to represent 53% of total sales

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According to a new report from Pike Research, the various national-level initiatives and programs to promote the awareness of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Asia-Pacific region will help make the region the largest market worldwide for electrified vehicles, led by strong demand in China, Japan, and Korea. billion in 2015.

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CAR: US light-duty vehicle sales to dip in 2019

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US Light Vehicle Sales, 2015-2018, and CAR’s Forecast, 2019-2025. Potential impact of trade negotiations with China, Japan, EU, and UK. CAR projects sales to rebound to 16.8 million units by 2022 and continue an upward trend through 2025.

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Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half

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million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6.0 Navigant estimates that sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) accounted for roughly 19% of electrified vehicle sales in 2015; in 2024, Navigant expects light duty PEVs to capture between 47% and 51% of the electrified vehicle market. million in 2024. through 2024, according to Navigant.

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3 Years Of Painful Cuts Sets Oil Markets Up For Serious Supply Crunch

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According to a separate report from SAFE, a Washington-based think tank, the oil industry has cut somewhere around $225 billion in capex in 2015 and 2016, which will lead to global supplies 4 million barrels per day lower in 2018-2020, compared to what market analysts expected as of 2014. Of course, these figures are not inevitable.

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Survey finds LNG-fueled ship orders up 26% in six months

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High oil prices, impending emissions regulations and technical advancements are propelling the market faster than we expected. A key factor is International Maritime Organization Tier III emissions standards, which are slated to take effect in 2015-2016. What surprised us is the rate.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. An explosion of hybrid sales in Japan. Click to enlarge.