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Opinion: Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Oil Prices

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Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. But along with all of the excess crude flowing from the oil patch, there is also an abundance of market indicators that while important, tend to produce a lot of noise that makes any accurate estimate nearly impossible.

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Global investment in renewable power reached $270.2B in 2014, ~17% up from 2013; biofuel investment fell 8% to 10-year low

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billion) and South Africa ($5.5 Another challenge was, at first sight, the impact of the 50%-plus collapse in the oil price in the second half of last year. In the US there is uncertainty over the future of the US Production Tax Credit for wind, but costs are now so low that the sector is more insulated than in the past.

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