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Lux Research: despite cheap oil, niche plug-in vehicle sales will be resilient; conventional hybrids to be hardest hit

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The current plunge in oil prices will likely negatively affect plug-in and hybrid vehicle sales in the short term; automakers such as BMW are already warning of lower sales of plug-in vehicles given the market context. Anticipated price of oil and forecast plug-in sales. Lux on the price of oil.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. In DB’s Fall 2009 note, they had forecast 12% growth.

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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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Among the more detailed transportation projections in AEO2014 are: LDVs powered by gasoline remain the dominant vehicle type in the AEO2014 Reference case, retaining a 78% share of new LDV sales in 2040, down from their 82% share in 2012. New vehicle sales shares are generally similar in AEO2014 and AEO2013 but with moderate variation.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Increased sales for hybrids and PHEVs. Reductions in battery electric vehicles are offset by increased sales of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles, which grow to about 1.3 Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 Click to enlarge. Overall findings. than in AEO2012.

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Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

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In the near-term (2011), lithium-ion batteries could grow to represent about 21% of the hybrid and EV advanced battery market, according to Dr. Menahem Anderman, President of Advanced Automotive Batteries and the organizer of last week’s Advanced Automotive Battery Conference 2009. By 2015, he suggests, full hybrids (e.g.,

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AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

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Such economic benefits could be realized earlier through effective policies which reduce first mover costs in the short term and promote rapid take-up once non-ICE vehicle price premiums reduce to levels that make them affordable to. The analysis is based on central forecasts of oil price, electricity. Scenario 1.

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