Forecast, Gasoline-Electric, Oil Prices and Plug-in

Lux Research: despite cheap oil, niche plug-in vehicle sales will be resilient; conventional hybrids to be hardest hit

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 2, 2015

The current plunge in oil prices will likely negatively affect plug-in and hybrid vehicle sales in the short term; automakers such as BMW are already warning of lower sales of plug-in vehicles given the market context. Anticipated price of oil and forecast plug-in sales. Source: Lux Research.

Plug-in

Plug-in Oil Cheap Plug

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

JANUARY 1, 2011

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. In DB’s Fall 2009 note, they had forecast 12% growth.

Transportation

Transportation Gasoline Lithium Ion Gasoline-Electric

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 16, 2013

Among the more detailed transportation projections in AEO2014 are: LDVs powered by gasoline remain the dominant vehicle type in the AEO2014 Reference case, retaining a 78% share of new LDV sales in 2040, down from their 82% share in 2012. LDV energy consumption declines in AEO2014 Reference case from 16.0 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 12.1

Oil

Oil Light Energy Vehicles

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

Green Car Congress

APRIL 14, 2015

The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. —EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski.

2020

2020 Energy Transportation Oil Prices

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Green Car Congress

JULY 12, 2011

According to a recently published report commissioned by the Victoria (Australia) Department of Transport from AECOM, electric vehicle (EV) technology offers the state of Victoria potentially significant economic benefits by the late 2020s. Modelled vehicle sales per year in Scenario 3. Source: AECOM. Click to enlarge.

PHEV

PHEV Oil Prices Australia Price

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

Green Car Congress

FEBRUARY 4, 2011

A new study sponsored by Indiana University concludes that President Obama’s vision of one million plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) on US roads by 2015 will require concentrated efforts action from all stakeholders— the auto industry, federal government, the scientific community, and consumers—to be realized.

Plug-in

Plug-in 2015 Plug Recharge

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 5, 2012

Transportation sector gasoline demand declines. Sales of battery-powered electric vehicles are 65% lower in the AEO2013 Reference case than the year before, with annual sales in 2035 estimated to be about 119,000. Click to enlarge. new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy.

Fuel

Fuel Energy Sale 2013

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Green Car Congress

APRIL 30, 2016

From the GHG abatement cost perspective, the study found that the most efficient technologies are full deployment of the E10 grade, to reach the 7% energy cap of conventional biofuels; higher advanced ethanol blends for gasoline such as E20; drop-in advanced biofuels for diesel; and hybridized powertrains, such as mild hybrids and full hybrids.

Transportation

Transportation Emissions Fuel Vehicles

Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

Green Car Congress

JUNE 16, 2009

Reflecting the current difficulties in forecasting, Anderman, who publishes an annual market forecast for the sector, said he decided not to produce the 2009 report. As one example of factors contributing to that decision, a survey of projected oil prices returned values between $30 and $250 a barrel, he said.).

Li-ion

Li-ion 2011 Market Hybrid

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

DECEMBER 17, 2010

The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. Shale gas offsets declines in other US supply to meet. Source: EIA. Click to enlarge.

Gas

Gas 2011 Price Energy

VW Chief Executive Says Company Will Introduce EVs Based on the Up! New Small Family in 2013; Cautions Against Electro-Hype

Green Car Congress

JULY 4, 2009

Cautioning that the development and commercialization of the electric car is “ not a sprint, but a marathon ”, Volkswagen AG Chairman of the Board of Management Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn said that Volkswagen would introduce its first electric vehicles based on the up! New Small Family ( earlier post ) in 2013. Background.

2013

2013 Companies Gas-Electric Recharge

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

APRIL 16, 2009

The World's First Clean Motocross Race On Electric. High-Speed Rail Unlocks Intermodal Potential Texas Excess Ford Expands Hybrid Success to Electric Vehicles ► March (17) Carbon Capture and Storage: To Be or Not To Be? Intelligent Charging Infrastructure for New Electr. Here we go again.or Carbon trading vs t.

Grid

Grid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Oil-Sands

EV Driven

Lux Research: despite cheap oil, niche plug-in vehicle sales will be resilient; conventional hybrids to be hardest hit

Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

AECOM study finds EV adoption in Victoria can offer significant economic benefits by late 2020s; PHEVs initially lead uptake

Expert panel report finds achieving 1M plug-in vehicles in US by 2015 would require concentrated action to overcome barriers

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

Roland Berger study outlines integrated vehicle and fuels roadmap for further abating transport GHG emissions 2030+ at lowest societal cost

Near-Term Prospects for Automotive Li-ion Batteries: 21% of Hybrid and EV Market by 2011

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

VW Chief Executive Says Company Will Introduce EVs Based on the Up! New Small Family in 2013; Cautions Against Electro-Hype

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

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