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Opinion: Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Oil Prices

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Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. But along with all of the excess crude flowing from the oil patch, there is also an abundance of market indicators that while important, tend to produce a lot of noise that makes any accurate estimate nearly impossible.

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Global investment in renewable power reached $270.2B in 2014, ~17% up from 2013; biofuel investment fell 8% to 10-year low

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billion, was up 36% on the previous year and came the closest ever to overhauling the total for developed economies, at $138.9 billion) and South Africa ($5.5 Another challenge was, at first sight, the impact of the 50%-plus collapse in the oil price in the second half of last year. billion, up just 3% on the year.

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Strong Dollar Could Cap Oil Prices

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dollar poses an obstacle to further gains in oil prices. As Reuters points out , in dollar terms the price of Brent oil has climbed 9 percent this year, but in yuan terms oil is now nearly 14 percent more expensive. The problem for many emerging markets is that oil prices have been going up at the same time.