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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

Green Car Congress

” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. In DB’s Fall 2009 note, they had forecast 12% growth. Click to enlarge.

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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

Green Car Congress

Among the more detailed transportation projections in AEO2014 are: LDVs powered by gasoline remain the dominant vehicle type in the AEO2014 Reference case, retaining a 78% share of new LDV sales in 2040, down from their 82% share in 2012. Natural gas overtakes coal as the largest fuel for US electricity generation.

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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

Green Car Congress

Among the transportation-related updates going into AEO2011, the EIA increased the limit for blending ethanol into gasoline for approved vehicles from 10% to 15%, as a result of the waiver granted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 2010.

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Nissan’s Big Gamble

Revenge of the Electric Car

The best thing about the Nissan is the expected price range of $25K- $34K. This is before the $7,500 federal tax credit. The gamble is that Nissan could grab the EV market and dominate it until BYD (China) enters the U.S., CEO Carlos Ghosn is spending big money to make electric vehicles in high volumes — and soon.

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