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IIASA: removing fossil fuel subsidies will not reduce CO2 emissions as much as hoped

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Fossil fuel subsidies amount to hundreds of billions of dollars worldwide, and removing them has been held up as a key answer to climate change mitigation. However, the study found that the growth of CO 2 emissions by 2030 would only be 1-5% lower than if subsidies had been maintained, regardless of whether oil prices are low or high.

Emissions 186
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US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030.

2006 150
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Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

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savings stimulated by high oil prices led to a decrease of 3% in CO 2 emissions in the European Union and of 2% in both the United States and Japan. tonnes per capita, despite a decline due to the recession in 2008-2009, high oil prices and an increased share of natural gas. tonnes per capita. the United States (16%).

2011 236
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PBL analysis finds that resources are not depleted, but expensive; badly functioning markets and wrong policies

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Current high prices of food, oil and many other resources are indications of increasing scarcity. Global Resource Scarcities and Policies in the European Union and the Netherlands”, examines scarcity using a framework comprising three dimensions: physical, economic and political. Source: PBL. Click to enlarge.

Market 186
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IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

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China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The US moves steadily towards meeting all of its energy needs from domestic resources by 2035. However, this does not imply a new era of oil abundance, the report cautions.

Oil 275
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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035. Oil and the Transport Sector: Reconfirming the End of Cheap Oil. —WEO 2011. Click to enlarge.

Oil 247