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Opinion: Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Oil Prices

Green Car Congress

Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. But along with all of the excess crude flowing from the oil patch, there is also an abundance of market indicators that while important, tend to produce a lot of noise that makes any accurate estimate nearly impossible.

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Sasol bails on $13-$15B US GTL project, divests from Canadian shale; no new greenfield GTL

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At the company’s Capital Markets Day 2017 in Johannesburg, South Africa, Sasol management said that the company will no longer pursue its proposed ) project in the US ( earlier post ) and furthermore will not invest in additional greenfields gas-to-liquids (GTL) projects.

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Opinion: How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out?

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With the decline of average annual crude prices, OPEC earned around $730 billion in net oil export revenues in 2014 (Source: EIA), a big decline of 11% from its previous year. The EIA even predicts that OPEC’s net oil exports (excluding Iran) could fall to as low as $380 billion in 2015. Nigeria’s dilemma.

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Opinion: Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

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Even a casual glance at the IMF’s World Economic Outlook statistics for Russia shows the tight correlation since 1992 between GDP growth on the one hand and oil and gas output, exports, and prices on the other (economic series available here ). in 2015 and 2016 respectively). in 2015 and 2016 respectively).

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IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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The cost of fossil-fuel subsidies has been driven up by higher oil prices; they remain most prevalent in the Middle East and North Africa, where momentum towards their reform appears to have been lost. Despite the growth in low-carbon sources of energy, fossil fuels remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported.

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EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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The potential for growth in demand for liquid fuels is focused on the emerging economies of China, India, and the Middle East, while liquid fuels demand in the United States, Europe, and other regions with well-established oil markets seems to have peaked. Rising world oil prices attract investment in areas previously considered uneconomic.

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IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

Green Car Congress

Under the central New Policies Scenario, automotive sales in non-OECD markets exceed those in the OECD by 2020, with the center of gravity of car manufacturing shifting to non-OECD countries before 2015. Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. Click to enlarge.

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