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S&P Global Commodity Insights raises 10-year production outlook for Canadian oil sands

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Higher crude prices and continued optimization improvements have driven the first upward revision to the S&P Global Commodity Insights 10-year oil sands production outlook in more than half a decade. Higher oil prices have driven record returns for the Canadian oil sands.

Oil-Sands 221
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New lifecycle analysis of WTW GHG emissions of diesel and gasoline refined in US from Canadian oil sands crude

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In a new, comprehensive study, a team from Argonne National Laboratory, Stanford University and UC Davis ITS has estimated the well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emissions of US production of gasoline and diesel sourced from Canadian oil sands. g CO 2 e/MJ for US conventional crude oil recovery. This range can be compared to ∼4.4

Oil-Sands 150
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EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.

Oil-Sands 220
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Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

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World oil production capacity to 2020 (crude oil and NGLs, excluding biofuels). Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 Source: Maugeri 2012.

Oil 261
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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The forecast’s base case points to primary energy use growing by nearly 40% over the next twenty years, with 93% of the growth coming from non-OECD (Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990.

Energy 210
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ExxonMobil: global GDP up ~140% by 2040, but energy demand ~35% due to efficiency; LDV energy demand to rise only slightly despite doubling parc

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Even as demand increases, the world will continue to become more efficient in its energy use, according to the 2015 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. Without efficiency gains across economies worldwide, energy demand from 2010 to 2040 would be headed toward a 140% increase instead of the 35% forecast in the report.

Energy 252
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EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain. OPEC oil producers are the largest source of additional liquid fuel supply between 2010 and 2040.

Asia 341