EV Resurgence: Is 2024 the Turning Point for Electric Cars?

by TTAC Staff

Published: January 23rd, 2024

Photo credit: Suwin66 / Shutterstock.com

The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing a significant growth in 2024, with expectations for sales of passenger EVs to climb by 21 percent in 2024, reaching 16.7 million units. This growth includes both battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, with the former expected to account for 70 percent of these sales. This trend reflects a steady rise in the EV sector, despite various external factors and policy changes affecting the market.

Diverse Market DynamicsChina's Dominance

In China, EV sales are anticipated to hit nearly 10 million units, constituting almost 60 percent of the global market. However, the growth rate in China is decelerating, primarily due to market saturation in affluent regions and challenging economic conditions.

Stability in Europe

Europe is likely to witness a stable increase in EV sales, with projections of 3.4 million vehicles, marking an 8 percent rise from the previous year. This stability results from reduced subsidies and the influence of favorable company-car taxation schemes.

Uncertainty in the United States

The U.S. EV market is facing unpredictability with an expected 1.9 million EV sales. Factors such as political polarization and shifts in tax credits could influence this figure.

Growth in Emerging Economies

Countries like India, Thailand, and Indonesia are experiencing notable growth in EV sales, indicating that EVs are not limited to wealthier nations.

Surge in Commercial Electric Vehicles

The commercial EV sector is seeing significant growth, with sales expected to double to 1 million in 2024, up from 500,000 in 2023. This segment plays a vital role, considering the substantial contribution of commercial vehicles to fuel consumption and emissions.

Technological and Infrastructure Progress

Key drivers for EV market growth include advancements in battery technology, declining costs, and the expansion of public charging infrastructure, now boasting 4 million points globally. These developments are crucial for the continued expansion of the EV market, especially with the introduction of more affordable models in Western markets.

Reflection on Past Forecasts

Looking back at previous predictions, there has been a notable accuracy in aspects such as sales figures, market leaders, and infrastructure growth. One significant confirmation is BYD surpassing Tesla as the top producer of battery-electric vehicles.

Market Leadership and Prospects

The competition for EV market leadership is primarily between Tesla and BYD, with both expected to maintain their significant leads over competitors like Volkswagen.

This article was co-written using AI and was then heavily edited and optimized by our editorial team.

TTAC Staff

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TheEndlessEnigma I would mandate the elimination of all autonomous driving tech in automobiles. And specifically for GM....sorry....gm....I would mandate On Star be offered as an option only.Not quite the question you asked but.....you asked.
MaintenanceCosts There's not a lot of meat to this (or to an argument in the opposite direction) without some data comparing the respective frequency of "good" activations that prevent a collision and false alarms. The studies I see show between 25% and 40% reduction in rear-end crashes where AEB is installed, so we have one side of that equation, but there doesn't seem to be much if any data out there on the frequency of false activations, especially false activations that cause a collision.
Zerocred Automatic emergency braking scared the hell out of me. I was coming up on a line of stopped cars that the Jeep (Grand Cherokee) thought was too fast and it blared out an incredibly loud warbling sound while applying the brakes. I had the car under control and wasn’t in danger of hitting anything. It was one of those ‘wtf just happened’ moments.I like adaptive cruise control, the backup camera and the warning about approaching emergency vehicles. I’m ambivalent  about rear cross traffic alert and all the different tones if it thinks I’m too close to anything. I turned off lane keep assist, auto start-stop, emergency backup stop. The Jeep also has automatic parking (parallel and back in), which I’ve never used.
MaintenanceCosts Mandatory speed limiters.Flame away - I'm well aware this is the most unpopular opinion on the internet - but the overwhelming majority of the driving population has not proven itself even close to capable of managing unlimited vehicles, and it's time to start dealing with it.Three important mitigations have to be in place:(1) They give 10 mph grace on non-limited-access roads and 15-20 on limited-access roads. The goal is not exact compliance but stopping extreme speeding.(2) They work entirely locally, except for downloading speed limit data for large map segments (too large to identify with any precision where the driver is). Neither location nor speed data is ever uploaded.(3) They don't enforce on private property, only on public roadways. Race your track cars to your heart's content.
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