Nine years ago, my first projection of electric vehicles was released. I predicted cumulative sales of full battery electric EVs of 21 million by the end of 2020.
In the end, it turned out to be 11 million.
Boy, it seems my model was wrong.
But, actually, not really. That 2015 projection was, in fact, just a little premature: The cumulative figure of 21 million global EVs fleet was achieved 16 months later, in April 2022.
The 16 month delay could be sheeted home to covid impacts through 2020, and the multitude of related supply chain impacts, which of course were absent in any 2015 pre-covid model projection.
While many think what a futurist does is just drinking and guessing, compared to other abysmal forecasts from the big names across the clean tech firms, our Future Smart Strategies projections have been least wrong.
Globally, EV sales remain buoyant (Figure 3 & 4 & 5). Electric vehicle annual sales continue to grow. ICE vehicle sales continue to fall. Electric vehicles made up a 20% share of global vehicle sales in February 2024, and sales easily outstripping hybrids – and plug-in hybrids.
In March 2024, there’s been media talk of plug-in hybrids taking an increasing share from EVs, but this appears to be yet another angle on stories from some media outlets continuing efforts to put the line ‘EVs in retreat’.
And EVs are having an impact. Oil consumption is falling globally and (as you’d expect with robust global trends) regionally as well.
As EVs accumulate in the fleet – heading to a 4.3% global fleet share by end of 2024 (Figure 6) – oil consumption is measurably down everywhere: not surprisingly in Norway (Figure 7 @robbie_andrew), but also through the EU, the USA (@EIAgov Figure 8 a), and even reports of China oil consumption growth reducing .
A sidenote – there’s an economic perception problem with falling oil consumption – national economic activity gets measured by how much oil a nation consumes, and economists failing to grasp of the real cause of falling oil consumption, eliciting the response to a nation burning less oil by saying the economy’s in trouble.
Anyhoo, US EIA data on US oil consumption reveals the slow down, with EIA forward projections showing expected continuing decline (Figure 8 b).
While US vehicle mileage is not falling (Figure 8 c), consumption per capita is heavily down as vehicle efficiency is up, and electric vehicle fleet going the distance as well (Figure 8 c, d).
There is no electric vehicles slow down, just talk!
In any event, if car makers stall in any region, they will simply be replaced by China.
This would certainly the case for Japan, especially as Toyota tries to emulate Kodak, spruiking analogue film to a new digital market.
Japan automakers are (still) hanging their hats on a hybrid strategy, but EVs continue to outsell hybrids by a country mile.
Growth in China remains the obvious guide to EVS global growth. China’s 2023 auto sales up 12% on overseas demand for EVs (Figure 9 a, b).
With the global EV market maintaining a rapid growth, China will no doubt be a formidable force in leading the transformation of the global auto industry (Figure 9c). We have already heard China car makers, particularly BYD, announce an intended price war with bigger discounts on new car versions in the second half of 2024.
Oh, and hydrogen vehicles won’t be a thing.