Tesla Q3 Sales & Production Numbers

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Update: Tesla has released its Q3 sales (deliveries) and production numbers. They are as follows:

This is the statement Tesla included with the production and sales update: “In the third quarter, we produced over 430,000 vehicles and delivered over 435,000 vehicles. A sequential decline in volumes was caused by planned downtimes for factory upgrades, as discussed on the most recent earnings call. Our 2023 volume target of around 1.8 million vehicles remains unchanged.”

As you can see comparing the numbers above and Troy Teslike’s estimates before the numbers were released, they were very close. Troy was just about 6,000 deliveries high in his estimate for that figure and his production estimate was about 1,500 shy of the eventual reality.

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Originally published on October 1:

The question of the week in the cleantech world and the investment world is: How many vehicles did Tesla produce and deliver in Q3 2023? The numbers should be published in the next day or so, but as we eagerly await those, and as we approach Monday, what are the most informed estimates?

As I’ve indicated before, I think “Troy Teslike” is currently the best in the world at tracking Tesla production and delivery numbers and news, and thus creates the best production and sales estimates. His latest estimate, as of yesterday, is that Tesla delivered 441,000 vehicles in the third quarter. That is quite a distance short of the Wall Street analyst consensus of 454,809 deliveries.

Notably, his production estimate is even lower — 428,519 vehicles.

You can see from his tweet (linked above) that data sources include DMV VIN data, sales data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), car insurance data, his order tracking spreadsheets, registration data from 24 countries, weekly production rate and production milestone announcements from Tesla, inventory data, export data, shipping data, and statements from Tesla in conference calls. That’s pretty comprehensive. Troy’s personal target with his end-of-quarter estimates is to not miss the actual number by more than 3%. He’s got a pretty good record on this, too.

In this tweet, you can see how his estimates are broken out by country and factory across all four quarters of 2023 and 2023 as a whole:

Here is my detailed table for Tesla deliveries. The final estimates for Q3 2023 are as follows:

• My estimate: 441,000
• Analyst consensus: 454,809

Part 2/3 pic.twitter.com/OOB25ZKyfX

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 30, 2023

Here’s his breakdown for production:

Here is my detailed production table. I estimate 428,519 production in Q3.

Part 3/3 pic.twitter.com/rK9QU83BWU

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 30, 2023

If you look closely at the Model 3 estimates for Q3, you can see that he expects sales are down across the world compared to Q2 2023, but the biggest drop by far is in China. He’s expecting a drop of more than 24,000 units. Naturally, this relates in part to the Model 3 Highland refresh and factory retooling for that. But does growing competition and an ongoing price war come into play as well? Who knows? But the 4th quarter should tell us more.

How about Model Y? In this case, Troy estimates approximately 13,000 more deliveries in China in the 3rd quarter versus the 2nd. He also expects about 10,000 more Model Y deliveries outside of China, Europe, and North America in Q3 than in Q2.

So, that’s what we have for now as far as a very informed estimate of Tesla deliveries and production in the quarter that just ended at midnight. What are your thoughts on these estimates?