It is difficult to believe that USA may have fallen that far behind Japan, China, EU etc by 2035?

The idea that anyone would be able to project what people will be driving more than 20 years into the future is absurd. The idea that you can predict what sort of cars people will be buying primarily on financial criteria is moronic, or else nobody would pay the extra bucks for Mercedes, BMWs. People will buy electric cars because they provide a much nicer driving experience than ICE.

It is called economics of a car company
they want to sell both cars
VW has been making diesels that get better MPG than the gasoline version for a premium. After 20 years of making the diesel i am sure they could make it for the same price but they know one part of the buyers will pay the premium and one part wants to keep the cost down

Predicting to 2035 is + 22 years.

Now look back 22 years to 1991 - not so different to now.

So maybe the future will be not so different.

Here is my guess:
More fuel efficient cars, varying degrees of hybridisation, cars running on natural gas. Very few pure electric cars.

A very large number of cars in the developing world.

Maybe lots of e-bikes or e-scooters.

Not very exciting, really.

"Policies for Sustainable Mobility"

It is not about predictions nor who thinks they are right even when they are not. It is about policies for sustainable mobility.

Policies are something we agree on that will get us where we want to go in the future. I doubt arguing about valve timing or turbo chargers will bring that about.

It looks like I do not even have to post to receive comments.

“The world is full of morons ”

And theater major making technical predictions. I could not kind any key staff at IEE that could even remotely qualify as a high school science teacher. There is no requirement to be qualified to write a report but it might be a good idea to check out who is writing it.

“Anyone who predicts what will happen 22 years in the future, especially for technology, ”

Actually I am very good at it. I predicted that BEV would go from zero to zero. That is my prediction about 20 years from now. Look at the curve at the start of the article. Zero now, 35% in the future! So what are the assumptions they make?

“oil prices increasing to $200 per barrel ....”

I predict that when we run out of oil, that we might use more BEV.

The reason that BEV are so flawed is the the reason people are not true. For example,

“People will buy electric cars because they provide a much nicer driving experience than ICE.”

I commute to work in a '89 Ford Ranger. Not having a big car payment is a much nicer driving experience.

One of the things I would have not predicted 20 years ago is having two 20 year old cars that need very little maintenance and use no between oil changes.

“More fuel efficient cars ..Very few pure electric cars. .”

Good start, good finish weak in the middle.

“If even one ..”

The only way our control system engineer can be right is by starting with an if.

I am an old school engineer who started out using a slide rule which requires the understanding of the meaning of numbers.

For example, 0.999999 = 1.0 or 0.000001 = 0.

Of course it depends on context such as 1 ppm might be a water chemistry limit for boiler chemistry.

“The Leaf sold more than 2200 units in March. ”

Put that in context by graphing sales of Corolla, Civic, and Focus and Leaf sales show up as zero.

The real world is more complex that a control system engineer system engineer. If your goal is to reduce oil imports (BEV do not use less energy), what matters is the area under the curve. My wife and mother-in law just set out on a 2000 mile trip. The leaf would not get them to the interstate. E-P makes up reasons to buy a BEV that are not true.

“The radial tire ”

That was a better idea. Another better idea that is even older is the ICE. Steam was used for trains and cars but was replaced by the ICE.

E-P will learn that his choice of cars was a bad idea. By refusing to tell us what the sticker price of his new car is it is fear that I will point out what a bad ides it is.

“Soon all that will be left to drill is $120/bbl and up. ”

Maybe you should wait until hauling batteries around is actually a good idea.

Hint, of you really serious about reducing oil imports, drive less.

Harvey,

Fatalities per km travelled have gone down practically every year for the past 60. They were going down when SUVs were a growing segment, and they are going down still. They are also going down in countries where trucks and SUVs were never a significant part of the fleet.

Your statistics tell us is that there's a global economic slump, and therefore people can't afford bigger cars. That's "good news" until you realize that the trend will reverse itself with the economy.

BTW, the trend toward fewer road deaths and injuries will continue, regardless of automotive fashion. It's a multi-factor trend, but there will always be people who are willing to assign all of the credit to their pet cause (speed radars, graduated licensing, alcohol awareness, anti-lock brakes, high-strength steel, etc).

Increasing 'population spread' into further away suburbs may be one of the major factor favoring smaller cars + higher distances. Higher gas price ($5.25 US/gal) is another one? Young working couples often use two smaller cars and travel up to (50+ km x 2 = 100+ km) each per day to go to work. Commuter trains have not kept up with demands.

Lower cost PHEVs with 50+ Km e-range + charging facilities at the work place and commuter trains stations, could be a good interim solution.

Many more commuter e-trains would be a better solution but the majority does not want to pay the very high initial and operation costs. Each additional line takes up to 20 years to realize and is the subject of long difficult political arguments.

Pedestrian fatalities were -31% over the last 5 years NOT +31% while general population growth was +9.5% (and close to 15% in most recently enlarged cities - including many old suburbs).

More cars and more pedestrians should have given more pedestrian fatalities in cities but it did not.

One of my next door neighbor is a car insurance executive. They have very defined interesting stats and studies leading to the same conclusions.

Take the over-powered huge monsters on wheels and motorcycles off the streets and roads and fatalities, injuries and property damages will go down drastically.

Larger vehicle (VUS, Pick-ups and 4 x 4) drivers normally drive faster and more dangerously? The one exception may be Civic's young drivers.

If you don't believe it, please call or visit a car insurance specialist, who has the information and is willing to talk about it.

Quoth the Twit:

The real world is more complex that a control system engineer system engineer.

My wife and mother-in law just set out on a 2000 mile trip. The leaf would not get them to the interstate.

Maybe you should wait until hauling batteries around is actually a good idea.