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ICCT report finds expected surge in renewable diesel production could have damaging environmental impacts due to feedstock demand

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The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has released a report prepared by the consultancy Cerulogy that explores the potential market and environmental impacts of increased capacity for renewable diesel produced by hydrotreating oils and fats in the US.

Renewable 243
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ICCT suggests minor changes to Fed tax policy to cut higher investment risk of 2nd-gen biofuels and advance the industry

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Using publicly available financial data, they applied investment analysis tools (the capital assets pricing model, CAPM) that are generally not applied to this space in order to develop a more rigorous understanding of the investment risk in the industry. Harmonizing definitions of eligible pathways between this tax credit and the RFS2.

Tax 262
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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020 150
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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. Aggressive near-term OEM lease pricing.

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Global biofuels production up 17% in 2010 to hit all-time high of 105 billion liters

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High oil prices, a global economic rebound, and new laws and mandates in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, and the United States, among other countries, are all factors behind the surge in production, according to research conducted by the Worldwatch Institute’s Climate and Energy Program for the website Vital Signs Online.

2010 256
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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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This larger resource leads to about double the shale gas production and more than 20% higher total lower-48 natural gas production in 2035, with lower natural gas prices, than was projected in the AEO2010 Reference case. In 2035, the average real price of crude oil in the Reference case is $125 per barrel in 2009 dollars.

Gas 199
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GAO Report Concludes Industry and Government Face Significant Challenges in Meeting RFS Target While Minimizing Unintended Adverse Effects; Suggests Federal Research Give Priority to Non-Ethanol Biofuels

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Biofuels production has had mixed effects on US agriculture with respect to land use, crop selection, livestock production, rural economies, and food prices, the report found. Federal tax credits, the RFS, and the ethanol tariff have primarily supported conventional corn starch ethanol. tax credit is.