NO_x emissions for the EU-27 as a whole are now projected to be 6% above the aggregated Member State ceilings (known as the Annex I ceiling) and 16% above the stricter ceiling for the European Community as a whole (the Annex II ceiling) set for 2010.

For the other three pollutants (SO₂, NMVOCs, NH₃) the situation is better, reflecting that most EU Member States are expected to reduce their emissions beyond the level of their ceilings. Only for SO₂ and NH₃ is the EU-27 expected to register substantial reductions, meeting both the aggregated ceilings.

Only Spain anticipates missing three emission ceilings: those for NO_x, NMVOC and NH₃. Additional forecasts published separately by Spain in July, and which take into account the economic slowdown, confirm further that even if additional actions were implemented to reduce emissions of these pollutants, the ceilings would still be missed.

Three Member States (France, Germany and the Netherlands) each anticipate missing two of their four emission ceilings. Of the four ceilings, NO_x remains by far the most difficult for many Member States to achieve—12 Member States now estimate they will miss the ceiling for this pollutant.

Similar to last year’s situation, some Member States including the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany expect to emit only slightly more NOx than their ceilings. Others, such as Ireland, Austria and Belgium, are projected to miss their limits by as much as up to 60%. Several Member States plan to implement additional measures to reduce emissions which would reduce the number projected to exceed their ceilings.

Still, five Member States (Austria, Belgium, France, Ireland and Spain) would still under these circumstances miss their ceilings by significant amounts. The progress toward meeting ceilings for the other pollutants remains largely on track.

The latest data available only covers past emissions up until 2007 and few Member States have yet fully incorporated the effects of the recession into their projections for 2010. However, based on informal information received from countries, it seems certain that for certain pollutants and sectors, emissions for 2008 will be lower than for previous years as a result of the recession, according to EEA. Decreased economic activity might also improve the chances of those Member States close to the level of the ceilings, in meeting their 2010 ceilings.