Navigant forecasts global sales of light-duty stop-start vehicles to grow from 19M in 2015 to 59 million by 2024
08 April 2015
In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts that total annual global light-duty start-stop vehicle (SSVs) sales will reach 59 million, accounting for 55% of all light duty vehicle sales. The same year, Navigant expects 82% of vehicles in Western Europe to have a stop-start feature, along with nearly 69% of vehicles sold in Asia Pacific.
In North America, nearly 37% of new light duty vehicles sold in North America are expected to have the feature by 2020, with the rate expected to hit 46% by 2024 and grow steadily.
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Navigant notes that the primary driver for manufacturers adopting SSV technology is the increasingly challenging legislation on fuel consumption and emissions in most countries and world regions. The other driver for SSV technology is consumer demand—present in Europe and some Asia Pacific countries for some time thanks to high fuel prices.
The recent dip in global oil prices has weakened this push, particularly in North America, where the market for stop-start vehicles (SSVs) has also suffered from some bad press about the performance of the first systems introduced. This situation means it is in the interest of the major brands to implement stop-start technology as standard (once the benefits have been established) to meet government targets for average fleet fuel consumption.
On the technology side, although upgraded lead-acid batteries currently represent the majority of production, Li-ion is beginning to make inroads, and ultracapacitors are establishing a niche in a supporting role.
Development work is also being invested into ways to extend the basic stop-start capability to incorporate more energy recovery via regenerative braking and to find ways to allow the engine to switch off for longer periods by electrifying some ancillaries. This also offers opportunities for other engine efficiencies such as electric boost. OEMs in general are now taking a holistic view of fuel economy that incorporates mass reduction as well as engine downsizing with turbocharging, so having even a small boost available from an integrated starter generator may produce measurable benefits.
Western Europe leads in adoption of SSVs, and Navigant expects the market there to be close to saturation by the end of the decade.
They might use Li batteries such as the A123 below for increased energy recovery on braking.
The main thing is to reduce fuel consumption on as many cars as possible, rather than have a few spectacular examples such as Merc PHEVs.
If every Ford Focus and Fiesta had stop/start (or advanced stop/start + energy recovery), you would save a lot more fuel than a few "conscience" high power PHEVs.
I wouldn't mandate it, I would just keep pressing for better fuel efficiency, year after year. The current low oil cost situation won't last forever so we may as well keep up a steady pressure on new developments and so be ready when fuel costs go up again.
Posted by: mahonj | 08 April 2015 at 11:04 AM