Going Vertical — EV Sales In Australia & New Zealand
As the new year progresses, we can see the Antipodean electric vehicle uptake curves heading towards the vertical.
Some pundits expressed disappointment that Robyn Denholm’s prediction that Tesla would double its presence on Australian roads did not eventuate, but as Veda Prime points out — 4,500 Teslas landed at ports before the end of the year that were not delivered due to logistical and other delays. I am sure they are being delivered as I write. Plus, there are 5 more shiploads of Teslas on the waters and soon to arrive.
Tesla delivered 41,729 vehicles to Australia from 2014–2022, according to data collected by Veda Prime.
Tesla sales almost doubled last year (hence the vertical line on the chart) and accounted for almost two out of every three electric vehicles sold in Australia — as the Tesla Model 3 ended the Toyota Camry’s 28-year dominance of the midsize segment. If charted, this line would tend to the vertical.
The Tesla Model 3 posted 10,877 sales in Australia last year, ahead of the Toyota Camry’s tally of 9,538 deliveries. Just two Tesla vehicles — the Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV — drove the US auto giant to 16th place outright on the sales charts, ahead of established brands such as Audi, Honda, and Volvo.
Figures released today showed 33,410 electric vehicles were reported as sold in Australia in 2022, an increase of 549% (from a low base of 5,149 electric vehicle sales in 2021). Despite the surge over Q4, which included the introduction of the Model Y, the BYD Atto 3, and the refreshed MG ZS EV, electric vehicles only managed a penetration rate of around 4% over the 2022 calendar year. I expect much better in 2023.
Australia’s figures: HEV — 81,786, up 16%, making up 7.6% of the new car market; PHEV — 5,937, up 76%, and 0.5% of the market; BEV — 33,410, up 549%, and 3.1% of the total new car market.
BYD with only three months of deliveries was the second best selling EV brand of 2022. With the launch of the Seal early in 2023 and a production ramp-up coupled with an export push, BYD is expected to give Tesla a run for its money this year in Australia and New Zealand. Unfortunately, figures are not available for the MG ZS EV. However, I expect the total to be four figures.
BYD sold more cars in Australia than Audi, Honda, Volvo, and BMW. That’s quite a feat considering the Atto 3 only arrived in October. Polestar only managed to sell 1,524 vehicles throughout the year — incidentally, this is the same amount that BYD sold just in December. Polestar is expected to perform better in 2023.
Meanwhile, over the ditch in New Zealand … 220 plugin vehicles were registered in the first week of 2023, 146 of them BEVs. Wonderfully, 3 of them were BEV utes! This is about 20% market share in only the first week of the month, and the first month of the year! Let’s keep our eyes on the NZ transport site for further updates.
“New Zealand Motor Industry Association (MIA) chief executive David Crawford says that local electric vehicle sales ‘strongly exceeded expectations’ in the full year 2022, adding that they are ‘rapidly closing the gap on monthly sales of hybrids,'” Stuff writes.
“A total of 164,964 new vehicles were registered in 2022, making it the second biggest year on record — coming in just 490 units shy of last year’s record 165,287 registrations.
“Sales of pure electric BEVs grew exponentially in 2022, rising from 6,897 in 2021 to 16,223. This means that BEVs comfortably outsold plug-in hybrids by almost two to one (7,259 PHEVs were registered in 2022).
“While hybrid vehicle sales grew year-on-year — from 13,794 to 17,621 — electric vehicles appear set to overtake them for popularity in 2023 assuming the momentum shown last year continues.”
Your comments on this Toyota?
New Zealand’s figures: HEV — 17,621, up 27%, achieving 10% of the new car market; PHEV — 7,259, which was 4% of the market; BEV — 16,223, up 135%, and 10% of the total new car market. Note these figures for the whole year are lower, relatively, than the exceptional December figures.
“While the MIA’s focus is on EVs, utes continued to lead the market with the Ford Ranger and Toyota Hilux named as the two most popular nameplates in the country. Commercial vehicle sales dropped year on year by 9% – a figure some might attribute to the introduction of the Clean Car Discount feebate scheme.
“Overall, the number of vehicles sold in New Zealand with some form of electrification almost doubled in 2022; rising from 23,173 to 41,103.
“The combined sales of hybrids and EVs are steadily inching closer to the ute and commercial vehicle market. A total of 48,479 commercial vehicles (inclusive of utes, vans, and trucks) were registered in 2022.”
With the launch of the LDV eDeliver 3, the eDeliver 9 vans, and the eT60 ute — dubbed “the EV for the Kiwi” — there will be more EVs available in the commercial vehicle sector.
It is hard not to notice the transition from ICE to electric, and from Tesla’s market monopoly to a more broad-based choice of EVs. At a recent BBQ organised by the Australian Electric Vehicle Association in conjunction with the Tesla Owners Club of Australia, it was obvious that not only were there more EVs on the road, there was also a greater variety. It wasn’t just Teslas. Many newer models — for example, the Polestar 2, BYD Atto 3, and MG ZS EV — were also present with their proud and enthusiastic owners. So were some of the old timers: a couple of BMW i3s and a Mitsubishi i-MiEV.
My wife says she is looking forward to sitting at traffic lights and being surrounded by quiet EVs — like in Norway. Yes, dear, like in Norway. But I guess there will still be a lot of duff-duff music and other annoyances. And no snow! With more models becoming available, the market shift to EVs will continue. The technology disruption charts will go vertical and the statistics will keep piling up.
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