Together, the three quotes provide a framework for analyzing Saudi options heading into the December 4 OPEC meeting in Vienna and its choices vis-à-vis the OPEC outsiders (all members but Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar): reconciliation, separation, or divorce. If You’re a Free Range Oil Producer. Despite low oil prices, Saudi Arabia is maintaining its investment in its oil industry. Much Higher Volume and/or Much Higher Prices. MORE

Oil prices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in US shale production. For the better part of two months, optimism surrounding the OPEC deal has buoyed oil prices, but bullish sentiment from speculators are showing early signs of abating, raising the possibility that the oil rally is running out of steam. The gains in the rig count come even as oil prices have held steady in the mid- to low-$50s per barrel. MORE

How did the high fuel prices impact customer behavior in 2008? A $1 change in gas prices can lead to a 4-6% shift in take rates (i.e. Alexander Edwards, President, Automotive Strategic Vision believes the exodus from full size SUVs was caused by economic caution as much as higher gas prices. Skalny, Director, US Army TARDEC shared the following insights on fuel usage within the Department of Defense (DOD): Every $10/barrel increase in oil prices adds $1.3 MORE

Putin has highlighted on various occasions the contribution Russia’s mineral wealth, in particular oil and natural gas, must make for Russia to be able to sustain economic growth, promote industrial development, catch up with the developed economies, and modernize Russia’s military and military industry. While oil and natural gas are crucial to Russia, Russia’s crude and natural gas are crucial to its neighbors on the Eurasian landmass. Market Background Oil Opinion Russia MORE

Chevron’s focus on optimizing the thermal management of the Kern River field has resulted in a steady drop in the steam:oil ratio (barrels steam water per barrel oil), resulting in improved economics of the field even with slowly declining production. Chevron, already the largest thermal heavy oil producer, is optimizing thermal production in heavy oil fields by leveraging information technology to improve the percentage recovery as well as the economics. MORE

With its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, one of the mandates of 12-member OPEC is to “ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry.” The EIA even predicts that OPEC’s net oil exports (excluding Iran) could fall to as low as $380 billion in 2015. The current oil price levels are nowhere near this. MORE

The demand for oil in 2015 will drop to its lowest level since 2002 because of an oversupply of crude and stagnant economies in China and Europe, according to OPEC’s latest forecast. OPEC’s monthly report said demand for the cartel’s oil will fall to 28.9 Add to that a new report from the US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), which also cut its 2015 forecast for growth in global oil demand by 240,000 barrels per day, down to 880,000 barrels per day. MORE

The True Cause of Recessions: OIL. I was asked to speak about the economic impact of our oil dependency and so I began researching this topic to see if I could draw some insightful conclusions. There have been 5 recession since then until now and I wanted to see if Oil had anything to do with them, because deep in my heart, I knew the most recent recession was directly caused by the oil price spikes that started in 2007 and peaked in 2008. MORE

OPEC next gathers December 4 in Vienna, just over a year since Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi announced at the previous OPEC winter meeting the Saudi decision to let the oil market determine oil prices rather than to continue Saudi Arabia's role of guarantor of $100+/bbl oil. In fact, Saudis have downplayed the impact of lower prices on their country, asserting that the kingdom has the financial wherewithal to withstand lower oil prices. MORE

With oil prices low and showing no sign of an immediate rebound, the industry is beginning to pull back on spending. Oil prices have dropped around 30 percent since summer highs, raising fears among producers across the globe. Yet, many oil majors are relatively diversified, with large holdings downstream. Steep declines in oil prices may hurt their production sectors, but with lower priced oil as an input, big oil’s refining assets become more profitable. MORE

In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market’s swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices. In October, Saudi sources first prepared the market with statements that the country would be comfortable with oil prices as low as $80 per barrel for “a year or two.” Plunging oil prices have substantially reduced Saudi revenues. MORE