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Today’s Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

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As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. As Saudi Arabia announces plans to slash production and move their economy away from oil dependency, many industry insiders are predicting that the now over-saturated market will reach an equilibrium with higher commodity prices by 2018 and U.S. shale production will continue to grow along with global demand.

CAPP forecasts oil sands development still drives steady Canadian oil production growth to 2030

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Canadian oil production will grow steadily by an annual average of 4% (175,000 barrels per day, mostly from the oil sands) over the period to 2030 as companies continue to develop the oil sands in response to strong demand indications from North American and global energy markets, according to the latest forecast from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). million barrels per day, with oil sands production contributing 5.2

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Increase in US rig count will not cap oil prices

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The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices. Those who study crude prices have correctly observed it was the 4 million barrels per day (b/d) increase in US LTO production that contributed greatly to the 2014 oil price collapse.

2016 150

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

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Examples of emerging oil sands related technologies and trade-offs. The paper is an examination of how various choices about the scale of the life cycle analysis applied to oil sands (i.e., Debate about the future of oil sands development is so contentious that even the name of the resource is disputed: proponents typically use oil sands while opponents use tar sands. Why then the focus on oil sands?

2010 196

State Department issues Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline: climate change impacts

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The US Department of State (DOS) has released its Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) in response to TransCanada’s May 2012 application for the Keystone XL pipeline that would run from Canada’s oils sands in Alberta to Nebraska. The pipeline would primarily transport crude oil from the WCSB and Bakken regions. The majority of the WCSB oil is considered a heavy crude oil, while Bakken crude is considered a light crude oil.

State Department releases Keystone XL Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

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Incremental well-to-wheels GHG emissions from WCSB Oil Sands Crudes Compared to Well-to-Wheels GHG Emissions from Displacing Reference Crudes Click to enlarge. The State Department released the long-anticipated and voluminous Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (Final Supplemental EIS) for the proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline project. Market analysis: cross-border pipeline constraints have a limited impact on crude flows and prices.

2014 192

Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity and risk of price collapse

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World oil production capacity to 2020 (crude oil and NGLs, excluding biofuels). Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 Such an increase in capacity could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices, he suggests. shale oil production. Oil: The Next Revolution."

2012 221

IEA: global map of oil refining and trade to be redrawn over next 5 years

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Profound shifts in the regional distribution of oil demand and supply growth will redefine the refining industry and transform global oil trade over the next five years, according to the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The MTOMR is the last in a series of medium-term forecasts that the IEA devotes to each of the four main primary energy sources: oil, gas, coal and renewable energy.

2012 216

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Liquid fuels production (OPEC crude and lease condensate, non-OPEC crude and lease condensate, and other) and consumption (by OECD and non-OECD regions) under three price cases in 2040. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain. per year, as the mature economies react to sustained high fuel prices.

2014 275

Opinion: The Shale Delusion: Why The Party’s Over For US Tight Oil

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The party is over for tight oil. Despite brash statements by US producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies. Reports this week from IEA and EIA paint a bleak picture for oil prices as the world production surplus continues. the latest price rout could stop US growth in its tracks.”. Global Supply and Demand Fundamentals Continue to Worsen. OPEC and US crude oil production.

2015 210

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under these projections. However, both cases result in global CO 2 emissions well above the IEA 450 scenario—a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.

2011 185

Opinion: Busting The “Canadian Bakken” Myth

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The financial pages of Canadian newspapers have been full of headlines lately announcing the potential of two large shale oil fields in the Northwest Territories said to contain enough oil to rival the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana. The report by Canada’s National Energy Board (NEB) evaluated, for the first time, the volume of oil in place for the Canol and Bluefish shale formations, located in the territory’s Mackenzie Plain. Canada Oil Opinion

2015 184

Opinion: Oil Megaprojects Won’t Stay On The Shelf For Long

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One casualty of the oil price downturn could be the megaproject. For years, as conventional oil reserves depleted and became increasingly hard to find, oil companies ventured into far-flung locales to find new sources of production. Extracting oil from these frontier areas required more advanced technology and a lot more capital: Ultra deepwater, Arctic offshore, heavy oil sands, and increasingly, the Lower Tertiary. Oil Opinion

2015 184

Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

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World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. In the first half of the year, producers strained to meet global demand, but when the recession took hold later in the year the market was swamped by excess supply. Energy prices reflected this shift: oil peaked at $144 per barrel in July, then fell to $34 per barrel in December.

2008 150

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

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A joint MIT/RAND study of the near-term commercial feasibility of alternative jet fuels has concluded that three types of alternative jet fuels may be available in commercial quantities over the next decade: Jet A derived from Canadian oil sands and Venezuelan Very Heavy Oils (VHO); Fischer-Tropsch (FT) jet fuel produced from coal, a combination of coal and biomass, or natural gas; and hydrotreated renewable jet fuel (HRJ) produced by hydroprocessing renewable oils.

2009 215

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard study releases major Technical Analysis and Policy Design reports; providing a scientific basis for policy decisions

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Very broadly, they found that an LCFS would buffer the economy against global oil price spikes, trim demand for petroleum, and lessen upward pressure on gas prices. California’s original approach to heavy carbon oils resulted in a legal challenge that is still pending; the EU’s adoption of a similar approach has resulted in protracted discussion and negotiation with Canada that has yet to be resolved, either.). Harmonize global LCFS policies.

2012 213

US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030.

2006 150

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Their results showed great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil. First, demand for passenger travel may be saturating in industrialized countries.

2013 184

Chevron leveraging information technology to optimize thermal production of heavy oil with increased recovery and reduced costs

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Chevron’s focus on optimizing the thermal management of the Kern River field has resulted in a steady drop in the steam:oil ratio (barrels steam water per barrel oil), resulting in improved economics of the field even with slowly declining production. Chevron, already the largest thermal heavy oil producer, is optimizing thermal production in heavy oil fields by leveraging information technology to improve the percentage recovery as well as the economics.

2011 210